Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle
With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) forecasts, based on the concept of dynamical model reconstruction and improved self-memorization principle, a new dynamical forecasting model of WPSH area (SI) index is developed. To overcome t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/867632 |
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| author | Mei Hong Ren Zhang Xi Chen Shanshan Ge Chengzu Bai Vijay P. Singh |
| author_facet | Mei Hong Ren Zhang Xi Chen Shanshan Ge Chengzu Bai Vijay P. Singh |
| author_sort | Mei Hong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) forecasts, based on the concept of dynamical model reconstruction and improved self-memorization principle, a new dynamical forecasting model of WPSH area (SI) index is developed. To overcome the problem of single initial prediction value, the largest Lyapunov exponent is introduced to improve the traditional self-memorization function, making it more appropriate to describe the chaotic systems, such as WPSH; the equation reconstruction by actual data is used as its dynamical core to overcome the problem of relatively simple dynamical core. The developed dynamical forecasting model of SI index is used to predict WPSH strength in the long term. Through 10 experiments of the WPSH abnormal years, forecast results within 25 days are found to be good, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80 and root mean square error under 8%, showing that the improved model has satisfactory long-term forecasting results. In particular the aberrance of the subtropical high can be drawn and forecast. It is acknowledged that mechanism for the occurrence and development of WPSH is complex, so the discussion in this paper is therefore exploratory. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fdbcdd3299b1446fb5914b8e547e199f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1026-0226 1607-887X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| spelling | doaj-art-fdbcdd3299b1446fb5914b8e547e199f2025-02-03T06:12:07ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1026-02261607-887X2014-01-01201410.1155/2014/867632867632Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization PrincipleMei Hong0Ren Zhang1Xi Chen2Shanshan Ge3Chengzu Bai4Vijay P. Singh5Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 003, No. 60, Shuanglong Road, Nanjing 211101, ChinaResearch Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 003, No. 60, Shuanglong Road, Nanjing 211101, ChinaResearch Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 003, No. 60, Shuanglong Road, Nanjing 211101, ChinaResearch Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 003, No. 60, Shuanglong Road, Nanjing 211101, ChinaResearch Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 003, No. 60, Shuanglong Road, Nanjing 211101, ChinaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843, USAWith the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) forecasts, based on the concept of dynamical model reconstruction and improved self-memorization principle, a new dynamical forecasting model of WPSH area (SI) index is developed. To overcome the problem of single initial prediction value, the largest Lyapunov exponent is introduced to improve the traditional self-memorization function, making it more appropriate to describe the chaotic systems, such as WPSH; the equation reconstruction by actual data is used as its dynamical core to overcome the problem of relatively simple dynamical core. The developed dynamical forecasting model of SI index is used to predict WPSH strength in the long term. Through 10 experiments of the WPSH abnormal years, forecast results within 25 days are found to be good, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80 and root mean square error under 8%, showing that the improved model has satisfactory long-term forecasting results. In particular the aberrance of the subtropical high can be drawn and forecast. It is acknowledged that mechanism for the occurrence and development of WPSH is complex, so the discussion in this paper is therefore exploratory.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/867632 |
| spellingShingle | Mei Hong Ren Zhang Xi Chen Shanshan Ge Chengzu Bai Vijay P. Singh Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| title | Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle |
| title_full | Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle |
| title_fullStr | Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle |
| title_short | Reconstruction of Dynamical Forecasting Model between Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index and Its Summer Monsoon Impact Factors Based on the Improved Self-Memorization Principle |
| title_sort | reconstruction of dynamical forecasting model between western pacific subtropical high area index and its summer monsoon impact factors based on the improved self memorization principle |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/867632 |
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