Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought
Study regions: The Huaihe River Basin (HRB), China Study focus: Quantifying the thresholds for the systematic propagation of meteorological drought (MD) to different levels of hydrological drought (HD) is essential for early warning and precision management of HDs. This study employs the non-station...
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000084 |
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| author | Na Zhen Rui Yao Peng Sun Qiang Zhang Chenhao Ge Han Shen |
| author_facet | Na Zhen Rui Yao Peng Sun Qiang Zhang Chenhao Ge Han Shen |
| author_sort | Na Zhen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study regions: The Huaihe River Basin (HRB), China Study focus: Quantifying the thresholds for the systematic propagation of meteorological drought (MD) to different levels of hydrological drought (HD) is essential for early warning and precision management of HDs. This study employs the non-stationary Normalized Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) from 1980 to 2019 to delineate MD and HD. Using Copula functions and Bayesian networks, it jointly analyzes the evolutionary characteristics of MDs and HDs in different sub-basins of the HRB, quantitatively investigates the thresholds for the propagation of MD to HD, and identifies potential influencing factors on these thresholds. New hydrological insights for the region: The study identifies 1991 as a change point, indicating that: After 1991, the thresholds for drought propagation exceeded their pre-1991 values, with mean thresholds increasing by 3.1 for drought duration and 2.8 for drought severity. The probability of drought propagation significantly decreased after 1991, declining from 62.34 % to 48.69 %. Bantai Station is primarily influenced by climate change, resulting in an increase in the drought duration propagation threshold from 12.2 to 17.5. Under similar climatic conditions, human impact at Wangjiaba Station is more pronounced than at Xixian Station. Hence, the transmission probability at Wangjiaba Station decreases significantly, while the transmission duration threshold rises from 11.6 to 13.5. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f3f88b8e05f447198e339e0b6633ec2f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-f3f88b8e05f447198e339e0b6633ec2f2025-01-22T05:42:22ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102184Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological droughtNa Zhen0Rui Yao1Peng Sun2Qiang Zhang3Chenhao Ge4Han Shen5School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; Engineering Technology Research Center of Resources Environment and GIS, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; Engineering Technology Research Center of Resources Environment and GIS, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; Corresponding author at: School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China.Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, ChinaSchool of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China; Engineering Technology Research Center of Resources Environment and GIS, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, ChinaStudy regions: The Huaihe River Basin (HRB), China Study focus: Quantifying the thresholds for the systematic propagation of meteorological drought (MD) to different levels of hydrological drought (HD) is essential for early warning and precision management of HDs. This study employs the non-stationary Normalized Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) from 1980 to 2019 to delineate MD and HD. Using Copula functions and Bayesian networks, it jointly analyzes the evolutionary characteristics of MDs and HDs in different sub-basins of the HRB, quantitatively investigates the thresholds for the propagation of MD to HD, and identifies potential influencing factors on these thresholds. New hydrological insights for the region: The study identifies 1991 as a change point, indicating that: After 1991, the thresholds for drought propagation exceeded their pre-1991 values, with mean thresholds increasing by 3.1 for drought duration and 2.8 for drought severity. The probability of drought propagation significantly decreased after 1991, declining from 62.34 % to 48.69 %. Bantai Station is primarily influenced by climate change, resulting in an increase in the drought duration propagation threshold from 12.2 to 17.5. Under similar climatic conditions, human impact at Wangjiaba Station is more pronounced than at Xixian Station. Hence, the transmission probability at Wangjiaba Station decreases significantly, while the transmission duration threshold rises from 11.6 to 13.5.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000084Meteorological droughtHydrological droughtDrought propagation thresholdsHuaihe River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Na Zhen Rui Yao Peng Sun Qiang Zhang Chenhao Ge Han Shen Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Meteorological drought Hydrological drought Drought propagation thresholds Huaihe River Basin |
| title | Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| title_full | Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| title_fullStr | Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| title_full_unstemmed | Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| title_short | Triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| title_sort | triggering thresholds and influential factors in the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought |
| topic | Meteorological drought Hydrological drought Drought propagation thresholds Huaihe River Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000084 |
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