Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events
Abstract This work explores dynamical arguments for statistical prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs). Based on climate model output, it focuses on two predictors, upward wave activity in the lower stratosphere and meridional potential vorticity gradient in the upper stratosphere,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080691 |
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| author | M. Jucker T. Reichler |
| author_facet | M. Jucker T. Reichler |
| author_sort | M. Jucker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This work explores dynamical arguments for statistical prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs). Based on climate model output, it focuses on two predictors, upward wave activity in the lower stratosphere and meridional potential vorticity gradient in the upper stratosphere, and detects large values of these predictors. Then it quantifies how many SSWs are preceded by predictor events and, inversely, how many events are followed by SSWs. This allows to compute conditional probabilities of future SSW occurrence. It is found that upward wave activity leads to important increases in SSW probability within the following 3 weeks but is less important thereafter. A weak potential vorticity gradient is associated with increased SSW probability at short lags and, perhaps more importantly, decreased SSW probability at long lags. Finally, when both predictors are considered in combination, the information gain is large on the weekly and small but significant on the intraseasonal time scale. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ac7088eabc754d2cb020da4004d35a3a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ac7088eabc754d2cb020da4004d35a3a2025-08-20T03:09:42ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-12-01452313,12413,13210.1029/2018GL080691Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming EventsM. Jucker0T. Reichler1School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria AustraliaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Utah Salt Lake City UT USAAbstract This work explores dynamical arguments for statistical prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs). Based on climate model output, it focuses on two predictors, upward wave activity in the lower stratosphere and meridional potential vorticity gradient in the upper stratosphere, and detects large values of these predictors. Then it quantifies how many SSWs are preceded by predictor events and, inversely, how many events are followed by SSWs. This allows to compute conditional probabilities of future SSW occurrence. It is found that upward wave activity leads to important increases in SSW probability within the following 3 weeks but is less important thereafter. A weak potential vorticity gradient is associated with increased SSW probability at short lags and, perhaps more importantly, decreased SSW probability at long lags. Finally, when both predictors are considered in combination, the information gain is large on the weekly and small but significant on the intraseasonal time scale.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080691stratospheric sudden warmingstratosphere‐troposphere couplingseasonal predictionstatistical analysisclimate model |
| spellingShingle | M. Jucker T. Reichler Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events Geophysical Research Letters stratospheric sudden warming stratosphere‐troposphere coupling seasonal prediction statistical analysis climate model |
| title | Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events |
| title_full | Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events |
| title_fullStr | Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events |
| title_short | Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events |
| title_sort | dynamical precursors for statistical prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events |
| topic | stratospheric sudden warming stratosphere‐troposphere coupling seasonal prediction statistical analysis climate model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080691 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mjucker dynamicalprecursorsforstatisticalpredictionofstratosphericsuddenwarmingevents AT treichler dynamicalprecursorsforstatisticalpredictionofstratosphericsuddenwarmingevents |