Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections
Sea wind speed forecast is important for meteorological navigation system to keep ships in safe areas. The high volatility and uncertainty of wind make it difficult to accurately forecast multistep wind speed. This paper proposes a new decomposition-based model to forecast hourly sea wind speeds. Be...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/2727218 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832566629617106944 |
|---|---|
| author | Jupeng Xie Huajun Zhang Linfan Liu Mengchuan Li Yixin Su |
| author_facet | Jupeng Xie Huajun Zhang Linfan Liu Mengchuan Li Yixin Su |
| author_sort | Jupeng Xie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sea wind speed forecast is important for meteorological navigation system to keep ships in safe areas. The high volatility and uncertainty of wind make it difficult to accurately forecast multistep wind speed. This paper proposes a new decomposition-based model to forecast hourly sea wind speeds. Because mode mixing affects the accuracy of the empirical mode decomposition- (EMD-) based models, this model uses the variational mode decomposition (VMD) to alleviate this problem. To improve the accuracy of predicting subseries with high nonlinearity, this model uses stacked gate recurrent units (GRU) networks. To alleviate the degradation effect of stacked GRU, this model modifies them by adding residual connections to the deep layers. This model decomposes the nonlinear wind speed data into four subseries with different frequencies adaptively. Each stacked GRU predictor has four layers and the residual connections are added to the last two layers. The predictors have 24 inputs and 3 outputs, and the forecast is an ensemble of five predictors’ outputs. The proposed model can predict wind speed in the next 3 hours according to the past 24 hours’ wind speed data. The experiment results on three different sea areas show that the performance of this model surpasses those of a state-of-the-art model, several benchmarks, and decomposition-based models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9d4e933c8e4a43738d2d1691343d4c2e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-9d4e933c8e4a43738d2d1691343d4c2e2025-02-03T01:03:40ZengWileyComplexity1099-05262021-01-01202110.1155/2021/2727218Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual ConnectionsJupeng Xie0Huajun Zhang1Linfan Liu2Mengchuan Li3Yixin Su4School of AutomationSchool of AutomationSchool of AutomationSchool of AutomationSchool of AutomationSea wind speed forecast is important for meteorological navigation system to keep ships in safe areas. The high volatility and uncertainty of wind make it difficult to accurately forecast multistep wind speed. This paper proposes a new decomposition-based model to forecast hourly sea wind speeds. Because mode mixing affects the accuracy of the empirical mode decomposition- (EMD-) based models, this model uses the variational mode decomposition (VMD) to alleviate this problem. To improve the accuracy of predicting subseries with high nonlinearity, this model uses stacked gate recurrent units (GRU) networks. To alleviate the degradation effect of stacked GRU, this model modifies them by adding residual connections to the deep layers. This model decomposes the nonlinear wind speed data into four subseries with different frequencies adaptively. Each stacked GRU predictor has four layers and the residual connections are added to the last two layers. The predictors have 24 inputs and 3 outputs, and the forecast is an ensemble of five predictors’ outputs. The proposed model can predict wind speed in the next 3 hours according to the past 24 hours’ wind speed data. The experiment results on three different sea areas show that the performance of this model surpasses those of a state-of-the-art model, several benchmarks, and decomposition-based models.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/2727218 |
| spellingShingle | Jupeng Xie Huajun Zhang Linfan Liu Mengchuan Li Yixin Su Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections Complexity |
| title | Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections |
| title_full | Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections |
| title_fullStr | Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections |
| title_short | Decomposition-Based Multistep Sea Wind Speed Forecasting Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit Improved by Residual Connections |
| title_sort | decomposition based multistep sea wind speed forecasting using stacked gated recurrent unit improved by residual connections |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/2727218 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jupengxie decompositionbasedmultistepseawindspeedforecastingusingstackedgatedrecurrentunitimprovedbyresidualconnections AT huajunzhang decompositionbasedmultistepseawindspeedforecastingusingstackedgatedrecurrentunitimprovedbyresidualconnections AT linfanliu decompositionbasedmultistepseawindspeedforecastingusingstackedgatedrecurrentunitimprovedbyresidualconnections AT mengchuanli decompositionbasedmultistepseawindspeedforecastingusingstackedgatedrecurrentunitimprovedbyresidualconnections AT yixinsu decompositionbasedmultistepseawindspeedforecastingusingstackedgatedrecurrentunitimprovedbyresidualconnections |