A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2010-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/763502 |
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| author | Robert Ehrlich |
| author_facet | Robert Ehrlich |
| author_sort | Robert Ehrlich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8c25f722b12247b39a127ec6d170af85 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2010-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-8c25f722b12247b39a127ec6d170af852025-02-03T01:23:16ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172010-01-01201010.1155/2010/763502763502A Universal Hurricane Frequency FunctionRobert Ehrlich0Physics & Astronomy Department, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USAEvidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/763502 |
| spellingShingle | Robert Ehrlich A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function Advances in Meteorology |
| title | A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function |
| title_full | A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function |
| title_fullStr | A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function |
| title_short | A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function |
| title_sort | universal hurricane frequency function |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/763502 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT robertehrlich auniversalhurricanefrequencyfunction AT robertehrlich universalhurricanefrequencyfunction |