Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling
Abstract The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during...
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Wiley
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003254 |
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| author | Dong Lin Wenbin Wang Katherine Garcia‐Sage Jia Yue Viacheslav Merkin Joseph M. McInerney Kevin Pham Kareem Sorathia |
| author_facet | Dong Lin Wenbin Wang Katherine Garcia‐Sage Jia Yue Viacheslav Merkin Joseph M. McInerney Kevin Pham Kareem Sorathia |
| author_sort | Dong Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first‐principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400–500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM‐2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM‐2013 suggest only ∼50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm‐time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and traveling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high‐latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics‐based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high‐latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-81246b2b8eb2422f95e88ce0bfe9d510 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-81246b2b8eb2422f95e88ce0bfe9d5102025-01-14T16:30:23ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-12-012012n/an/a10.1029/2022SW003254Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace ModelingDong Lin0Wenbin Wang1Katherine Garcia‐Sage2Jia Yue3Viacheslav Merkin4Joseph M. McInerney5Kevin Pham6Kareem Sorathia7High Altitude Observatory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAHigh Altitude Observatory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USAJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USAHigh Altitude Observatory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAHigh Altitude Observatory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USAAbstract The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first‐principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400–500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM‐2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM‐2013 suggest only ∼50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm‐time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and traveling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high‐latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics‐based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high‐latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003254Starlinkgeomagnetic stormthermospheric densitywhole geospace modelingsatellite drag |
| spellingShingle | Dong Lin Wenbin Wang Katherine Garcia‐Sage Jia Yue Viacheslav Merkin Joseph M. McInerney Kevin Pham Kareem Sorathia Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling Space Weather Starlink geomagnetic storm thermospheric density whole geospace modeling satellite drag |
| title | Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling |
| title_full | Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling |
| title_fullStr | Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling |
| title_short | Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics‐Based Whole Geospace Modeling |
| title_sort | thermospheric neutral density variation during the spacex storm implications from physics based whole geospace modeling |
| topic | Starlink geomagnetic storm thermospheric density whole geospace modeling satellite drag |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003254 |
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