Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases
Objectives This study was conducted to develop nomograms for predicting repeat intrahepatic recurrence (rIHR) and overall survival (OS), after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), treatment in patients with recurrent colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) after hepatectomy based on clinicopathologic features....
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Hyperthermia |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/02656736.2024.2323152 |
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| author | Ji-Chen Wang Bin-Bin Jiang Zhong-Yi Zhang Yu-Hui Liu Li-Jin Shao Song Wang Wei Yang Wei Wu Kun Yan |
| author_facet | Ji-Chen Wang Bin-Bin Jiang Zhong-Yi Zhang Yu-Hui Liu Li-Jin Shao Song Wang Wei Yang Wei Wu Kun Yan |
| author_sort | Ji-Chen Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives This study was conducted to develop nomograms for predicting repeat intrahepatic recurrence (rIHR) and overall survival (OS), after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), treatment in patients with recurrent colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) after hepatectomy based on clinicopathologic features.Methods A total of 160 consecutive patients with recurrent CLMs after hepatectomy who were treated with ultrasound-guided percutaneous RFA from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively included. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with a ratio of 8:2. Potential prognostic factors associated with rIHR and OS, after RFA, were identified by using the competing-risks and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively, and were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s C-index and a calibration curve.Results The 1-, 2-, and 3-year rIHR rates after RFA were 58.8%, 70.2%, and 74.2%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 96.3%, 60.4%, and 38.5%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, mutant RAS, interval from hepatectomy to intrahepatic recurrence ≤ 12 months, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and ablation margin <5 mm were the independent predictive factors for rIHR. Mutant RAS, largest CLM at hepatectomy >3 cm, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and extrahepatic disease were independent predictors of poor OS. Two nomograms for rIHR and OS were constructed using the respective significant variables. In both cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and calibration.Conclusions The established nomograms can predict individual risk of rIHR and OS after RFA for recurrent CLMs and contribute to improving individualized management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-806d3db6e6444a589edf840bf51dbaf2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0265-6736 1464-5157 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Hyperthermia |
| spelling | doaj-art-806d3db6e6444a589edf840bf51dbaf22025-01-03T09:30:27ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Hyperthermia0265-67361464-51572024-12-0141110.1080/02656736.2024.2323152Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastasesJi-Chen Wang0Bin-Bin Jiang1Zhong-Yi Zhang2Yu-Hui Liu3Li-Jin Shao4Song Wang5Wei Yang6Wei Wu7Kun Yan8Department of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Ultrasound, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, ChinaObjectives This study was conducted to develop nomograms for predicting repeat intrahepatic recurrence (rIHR) and overall survival (OS), after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), treatment in patients with recurrent colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) after hepatectomy based on clinicopathologic features.Methods A total of 160 consecutive patients with recurrent CLMs after hepatectomy who were treated with ultrasound-guided percutaneous RFA from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively included. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with a ratio of 8:2. Potential prognostic factors associated with rIHR and OS, after RFA, were identified by using the competing-risks and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively, and were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s C-index and a calibration curve.Results The 1-, 2-, and 3-year rIHR rates after RFA were 58.8%, 70.2%, and 74.2%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 96.3%, 60.4%, and 38.5%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, mutant RAS, interval from hepatectomy to intrahepatic recurrence ≤ 12 months, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and ablation margin <5 mm were the independent predictive factors for rIHR. Mutant RAS, largest CLM at hepatectomy >3 cm, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and extrahepatic disease were independent predictors of poor OS. Two nomograms for rIHR and OS were constructed using the respective significant variables. In both cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and calibration.Conclusions The established nomograms can predict individual risk of rIHR and OS after RFA for recurrent CLMs and contribute to improving individualized management.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/02656736.2024.2323152Radiofrequency ablationcolorectal cancer liver metastasesnomogramrecurrenceRAS mutation status |
| spellingShingle | Ji-Chen Wang Bin-Bin Jiang Zhong-Yi Zhang Yu-Hui Liu Li-Jin Shao Song Wang Wei Yang Wei Wu Kun Yan Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases International Journal of Hyperthermia Radiofrequency ablation colorectal cancer liver metastases nomogram recurrence RAS mutation status |
| title | Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| title_full | Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| title_fullStr | Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| title_short | Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| title_sort | predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases |
| topic | Radiofrequency ablation colorectal cancer liver metastases nomogram recurrence RAS mutation status |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/02656736.2024.2323152 |
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