Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers.

We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Inherent latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with smaller and intrinsically noisier c...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kris V Parag, Christl A Donnelly
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2022-04-01
Series:PLoS Computational Biology
Online Access:https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010004&type=printable
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