Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target
China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is essential to develop representative CO2 emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research. To address inconsistencies between provincia...
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| Format: | Article |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001552 |
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| author | Han-Tang Peng Da Zhang Jun-Ting Zhong Li-Feng Guo Si-Yue Guo Jun-Ling Huang De-Ying Wang Chang-Hong Miao Xi-Liang Zhang Xiao-Ye Zhang |
| author_facet | Han-Tang Peng Da Zhang Jun-Ting Zhong Li-Feng Guo Si-Yue Guo Jun-Ling Huang De-Ying Wang Chang-Hong Miao Xi-Liang Zhang Xiao-Ye Zhang |
| author_sort | Han-Tang Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is essential to develop representative CO2 emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research. To address inconsistencies between provincial aggregate emissions and national estimates, this study compares the 2021 CO2 emissions estimates of China's provinces from the bottom‒up emissions factor method and the top‒down atmospheric CO2 concentration inversion method. We find that these methods yield comparable results for the emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes at the provincial level. Based on a review of existing research on CO2 pathways for China's provinces, we propose a set of representative pathways for China's provinces. These pathways align with past practices of allocating national emissions intensity reduction targets to provinces and are consistent with the national Tsinghua‒CMA pathway. The proposed pathways require provinces to sequentially peak their emissions by 2030, followed by rapid emissions reduction. Compared to a reference scenario without the carbon neutrality target, these pathways would incur an estimated cumulative GDP loss of about 1% between 2020 and 2060. However, there are notable regional variations, with some regions in the northwest potentially experiencing higher economic growth due to the availability of high-quality low-carbon resources. We recommend that China enhance provincial-level CO2 emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom‒up and top‒down methods. Additionally, careful consideration should be given to aligning provincial targets with national and global commitments when updating pathways toward carbon neutrality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-67fe89095ec24f66a766541cbf4bd433 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-67fe89095ec24f66a766541cbf4bd4332025-01-15T04:11:35ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782024-12-0115610961106Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C targetHan-Tang Peng0Da Zhang1Jun-Ting Zhong2Li-Feng Guo3Si-Yue Guo4Jun-Ling Huang5De-Ying Wang6Chang-Hong Miao7Xi-Liang Zhang8Xiao-Ye Zhang9Tsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy, Beijing 10084, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment & Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, ChinaLaboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaLaboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment & Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaTsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy, Beijing 10084, China; International Clean Energy Research Office, China Three Gorges Corporation, Beijing 100038, ChinaLaboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, ChinaLaboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment & Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Corresponding author. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; Corresponding author. Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality of CMA, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It is essential to develop representative CO2 emissions pathways at the provincial level that align with the national target to facilitate effective policy implementation and scientific research. To address inconsistencies between provincial aggregate emissions and national estimates, this study compares the 2021 CO2 emissions estimates of China's provinces from the bottom‒up emissions factor method and the top‒down atmospheric CO2 concentration inversion method. We find that these methods yield comparable results for the emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes at the provincial level. Based on a review of existing research on CO2 pathways for China's provinces, we propose a set of representative pathways for China's provinces. These pathways align with past practices of allocating national emissions intensity reduction targets to provinces and are consistent with the national Tsinghua‒CMA pathway. The proposed pathways require provinces to sequentially peak their emissions by 2030, followed by rapid emissions reduction. Compared to a reference scenario without the carbon neutrality target, these pathways would incur an estimated cumulative GDP loss of about 1% between 2020 and 2060. However, there are notable regional variations, with some regions in the northwest potentially experiencing higher economic growth due to the availability of high-quality low-carbon resources. We recommend that China enhance provincial-level CO2 emissions accounting by cross-validating bottom‒up and top‒down methods. Additionally, careful consideration should be given to aligning provincial targets with national and global commitments when updating pathways toward carbon neutrality.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001552CO2 emissions accountingEmissions pathwayCarbon neutrality2 °C target |
| spellingShingle | Han-Tang Peng Da Zhang Jun-Ting Zhong Li-Feng Guo Si-Yue Guo Jun-Ling Huang De-Ying Wang Chang-Hong Miao Xi-Liang Zhang Xiao-Ye Zhang Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target Advances in Climate Change Research CO2 emissions accounting Emissions pathway Carbon neutrality 2 °C target |
| title | Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target |
| title_full | Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target |
| title_fullStr | Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target |
| title_full_unstemmed | Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target |
| title_short | Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China's provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement's 2 °C target |
| title_sort | representative co2 emissions pathways for china s provinces toward carbon neutrality under the paris agreement s 2 °c target |
| topic | CO2 emissions accounting Emissions pathway Carbon neutrality 2 °C target |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927824001552 |
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