Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model
With the continuous advancement of China’s supply-side structural reform, the country’s energy consumption structure has undergone considerable changes, including an overall reduction in fossil energy use and a rapid increase in clean energy application. In the context of China’s coal overcapacity,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1276305 |
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| author | Cheng Zhang Shouchen Liu |
| author_facet | Cheng Zhang Shouchen Liu |
| author_sort | Cheng Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With the continuous advancement of China’s supply-side structural reform, the country’s energy consumption structure has undergone considerable changes, including an overall reduction in fossil energy use and a rapid increase in clean energy application. In the context of China’s coal overcapacity, port and rail capacities are difficult to change in the short term. This study forecasts the monthly coal traffic of Daqin Railway on the basis of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average Markov model and then uses the monthly coal transport data of this railway from September 2009 to November 2019 as samples for model training and verification. Coal traffic from December 2019 to September 2020 is accurately predicted. This study also analyzes the effects of China’s industrial structure adjustment, clean energy utilization, and low-carbon usage on the coal transport volume of Daqin Railway. In addition, the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation and the development trend of Daqin Railway’s coal traffic are explored. This study provides a reference for adjusting the train operation chart of Daqin Railway’s coal transport and developing a special coal train operation plan. It can determine the time of coal transport peak warning, improve the efficiency of coal transport management, and eventually realize a reasonable allocation of resources for Daqin Railway. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6515086deeba4184a9e60dd72cad0ecb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-6515086deeba4184a9e60dd72cad0ecb2025-02-03T05:49:54ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952020-01-01202010.1155/2020/12763051276305Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov ModelCheng Zhang0Shouchen Liu1School of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiao Tong University, Nanchang 330013, ChinaSchool of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiao Tong University, Nanchang 330013, ChinaWith the continuous advancement of China’s supply-side structural reform, the country’s energy consumption structure has undergone considerable changes, including an overall reduction in fossil energy use and a rapid increase in clean energy application. In the context of China’s coal overcapacity, port and rail capacities are difficult to change in the short term. This study forecasts the monthly coal traffic of Daqin Railway on the basis of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average Markov model and then uses the monthly coal transport data of this railway from September 2009 to November 2019 as samples for model training and verification. Coal traffic from December 2019 to September 2020 is accurately predicted. This study also analyzes the effects of China’s industrial structure adjustment, clean energy utilization, and low-carbon usage on the coal transport volume of Daqin Railway. In addition, the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation and the development trend of Daqin Railway’s coal traffic are explored. This study provides a reference for adjusting the train operation chart of Daqin Railway’s coal transport and developing a special coal train operation plan. It can determine the time of coal transport peak warning, improve the efficiency of coal transport management, and eventually realize a reasonable allocation of resources for Daqin Railway.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1276305 |
| spellingShingle | Cheng Zhang Shouchen Liu Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model |
| title_full | Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model |
| title_fullStr | Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model |
| title_short | Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model |
| title_sort | forecast and analysis of coal traffic in daqin railway based on the sarima markov model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1276305 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chengzhang forecastandanalysisofcoaltrafficindaqinrailwaybasedonthesarimamarkovmodel AT shouchenliu forecastandanalysisofcoaltrafficindaqinrailwaybasedonthesarimamarkovmodel |