Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?
Abstract We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagn...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108946 |
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| _version_ | 1849321324016566272 |
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| author | Mingyue Chen Arun Kumar Michelle L’Heureux Peitao Peng Tao Zhang Martin P. Hoerling Henry F. Diaz |
| author_facet | Mingyue Chen Arun Kumar Michelle L’Heureux Peitao Peng Tao Zhang Martin P. Hoerling Henry F. Diaz |
| author_sort | Mingyue Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5ea12b3acd6b44049aed0cdd9b52255e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-5ea12b3acd6b44049aed0cdd9b52255e2025-08-20T03:49:46ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015114n/an/a10.1029/2024GL108946Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?Mingyue Chen0Arun Kumar1Michelle L’Heureux2Peitao Peng3Tao Zhang4Martin P. Hoerling5Henry F. Diaz6NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center College Park MD USANOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center College Park MD USANOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center College Park MD USANOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center College Park MD USANOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center College Park MD USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Colorado‐Boulder Boulder CO USADepartment of Geography and Environment University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu HI USAAbstract We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200‐hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200‐hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108946multi‐model ensemble meanseasonal forecastEl Niño—Southern OscillationSST warming trendupper‐level height |
| spellingShingle | Mingyue Chen Arun Kumar Michelle L’Heureux Peitao Peng Tao Zhang Martin P. Hoerling Henry F. Diaz Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? Geophysical Research Letters multi‐model ensemble mean seasonal forecast El Niño—Southern Oscillation SST warming trend upper‐level height |
| title | Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? |
| title_full | Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? |
| title_fullStr | Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? |
| title_short | Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response? |
| title_sort | why do djf 2023 24 upper level 200 hpa geopotential height forecasts look different from the expected el nino response |
| topic | multi‐model ensemble mean seasonal forecast El Niño—Southern Oscillation SST warming trend upper‐level height |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108946 |
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