Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?

Why Do DJF 2023/24 Upper‐Level 200‐hPa Geopotential Height Forecasts Look Different From the Expected El Niño Response?

Abstract We investigate why the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) upper‐level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagn...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mingyue Chen, Arun Kumar, Michelle L’Heureux, Peitao Peng, Tao Zhang, Martin P. Hoerling, Henry F. Diaz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-07-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
multi‐model ensemble mean
seasonal forecast
El Niño—Southern Oscillation
SST warming trend
upper‐level height
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108946
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108946

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