Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies
Abstract Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, making 2023 the second warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre‐industrial climate, and 2024 became the first year on record to surpass 1.5°C. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming during 202...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614 |
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| _version_ | 1849434457882230784 |
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| author | Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth Roberto Bilbao Aaron Donohoe Stefano Materia |
| author_facet | Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth Roberto Bilbao Aaron Donohoe Stefano Materia |
| author_sort | Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, making 2023 the second warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre‐industrial climate, and 2024 became the first year on record to surpass 1.5°C. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming during 2023 with CMIP simulations and a fully‐coupled forecast ensemble initialized on 1 November 2022. The year‐to‐year (Y2Y) warming for the second half of 2023 of 0.49°C equaled the largest on record since 1850, and is simulated as a 1 in 6,000 years event. The forecast ensemble‐mean predicts about 75% of the observed warming during 2023. The remaining 25% of the warming lies within the forecast spread, with members that forecast a strong 2023 El Niño and positive absorbed shortwave anomalies more likely to forecast the entirety of the observed warming. The forecast ensemble succesfully predicts 2024 to be the first year on record above 1.5°C. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4f30798f7fc143889c8d2941a779fce0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f30798f7fc143889c8d2941a779fce02025-08-20T03:26:38ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-05-015210n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115614Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave AnomaliesEduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth0Roberto Bilbao1Aaron Donohoe2Stefano Materia3Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington Seattle WA USABarcelona Supercomputing Centre‐Centro Nacional de Supercomputación Barcelona SpainDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington Seattle WA USABarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) Barcelona SpainAbstract Global mean temperature rapidly warmed during 2023, making 2023 the second warmest year on record at 1.45°C above pre‐industrial climate, and 2024 became the first year on record to surpass 1.5°C. Here we explore the likelihood, mechanisms, and predictability of the rapid warming during 2023 with CMIP simulations and a fully‐coupled forecast ensemble initialized on 1 November 2022. The year‐to‐year (Y2Y) warming for the second half of 2023 of 0.49°C equaled the largest on record since 1850, and is simulated as a 1 in 6,000 years event. The forecast ensemble‐mean predicts about 75% of the observed warming during 2023. The remaining 25% of the warming lies within the forecast spread, with members that forecast a strong 2023 El Niño and positive absorbed shortwave anomalies more likely to forecast the entirety of the observed warming. The forecast ensemble succesfully predicts 2024 to be the first year on record above 1.5°C.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614 |
| spellingShingle | Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth Roberto Bilbao Aaron Donohoe Stefano Materia Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies |
| title_full | Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies |
| title_fullStr | Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies |
| title_short | Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies |
| title_sort | record warmth of 2023 and 2024 was highly predictable and resulted from enso transition and northern hemisphere absorbed shortwave anomalies |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614 |
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