Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene
Abstract Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth’s ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL neve...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0 |
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| author | Roger C. Creel Jacqueline Austermann Robert E. Kopp Nicole S. Khan Torsten Albrecht Jonathan Kingslake |
| author_facet | Roger C. Creel Jacqueline Austermann Robert E. Kopp Nicole S. Khan Torsten Albrecht Jonathan Kingslake |
| author_sort | Roger C. Creel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth’s ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (−3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4ef5693f7f014829a6ef3cf3950c1031 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-4ef5693f7f014829a6ef3cf3950c10312025-01-05T12:34:49ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-12-0115111410.1038/s41467-024-54535-0Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holoceneRoger C. Creel0Jacqueline Austermann1Robert E. Kopp2Nicole S. Khan3Torsten Albrecht4Jonathan Kingslake5Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers UniversityDepartment of Earth Science and Swire Institute of Marine Science, University of Hong KongPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityAbstract Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change can shed light on how the Earth system responds to warming. Glaciological evidence indicates that Earth’s ice sheets retreated inland of early industrial (1850 CE) extents during the Holocene (11.7-0 ka), yet previous work suggests that Holocene GMSL never surpassed early industrial levels. We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene GMSL and ice volume. We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) GMSL exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5ka, reaching 0.24 m (−3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3.2ka; Antarctica was likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7ka; GMSL rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years; and by 2060, GMSL will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0 |
| spellingShingle | Roger C. Creel Jacqueline Austermann Robert E. Kopp Nicole S. Khan Torsten Albrecht Jonathan Kingslake Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene Nature Communications |
| title | Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| title_full | Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| title_fullStr | Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| title_short | Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| title_sort | global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0 |
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