Analysis of Water Resources Supply and Demand Balance in Shandong Province Based on System Dynamics Model
According to the supply and demand situation of water resources in Shandong Province, this paper simulates and analyzes the water supply and demand balance of Shandong Province from 2019 to 2050 by designing four development scenarios, namely, status quo maintaining (S1), economic development (S2),...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Editorial Office of Pearl River
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.02.011 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | According to the supply and demand situation of water resources in Shandong Province, this paper simulates and analyzes the water supply and demand balance of Shandong Province from 2019 to 2050 by designing four development scenarios, namely, status quo maintaining (S1), economic development (S2), water saving (S3) and comprehensive development (S4) with system dynamics (SD) method. The results show that: ①The total water demand of Shandong Province increases with time under different scenarios. The average total water demands under S1—S4 are 23.863, 26.170, 18.779 and 24.176 billion m<sup>3</sup>, respectively. The total water demand, water deficit and shortage index at the end of the simulation period (2050) are 29.190, 38.660, 23.550, 36.580 billion m<sup>3</sup>, 0.793, 1.470, 0.229, 1.532 billion m<sup>3</sup> and 0.373, 0.818, 0.108 and 0.720, respectively; ②Based on the comparison and analysis of the four scenarios, it is found that S4 is at a moderate level in terms of water demand, water deficit and COD emission, which can ensure not only the economic development but also the sustainable utilization of water resources. This scenario is the development plan that Shandong Province should adopt; ③Shandong Province should consider both the social-economic development and water resources utilization in the future development, and ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water resources and sustainable development of social economy by taking measures such as strengthening water saving consciousness, improving irrigation technology and reducing water pollution. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1001-9235 |