Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements
Abstract Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003427 |
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| author | D. L. Hysell A. Kirchman B. J. Harding R. A. Heelis S. L. England |
| author_facet | D. L. Hysell A. Kirchman B. J. Harding R. A. Heelis S. L. England |
| author_sort | D. L. Hysell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-330fc396d2bd4974b8f49abf550e4734 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-330fc396d2bd4974b8f49abf550e47342025-01-14T16:26:44ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902023-05-01215n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003427Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite MeasurementsD. L. Hysell0A. Kirchman1B. J. Harding2R. A. Heelis3S. L. England4Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University Ithaca NY USAEarth and Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University Ithaca NY USASpace Sciences Laboratory University of California Berkeley Berkeley CA USAWilliam B. Hanson Center for Space Sciences University of Texas at Dallas Dallas TX USAAerospace and Ocean Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg VA USAAbstract Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003427ICONequatorial spread Fionospherespace weatherforecasting |
| spellingShingle | D. L. Hysell A. Kirchman B. J. Harding R. A. Heelis S. L. England Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements Space Weather ICON equatorial spread F ionosphere space weather forecasting |
| title | Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements |
| title_full | Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements |
| title_short | Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements |
| title_sort | forecasting equatorial ionospheric convective instability with icon satellite measurements |
| topic | ICON equatorial spread F ionosphere space weather forecasting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003427 |
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