A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, including traditional and adaptive randomized clinical trials and human challenge trials. Using epidemiological models calibrated to the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244418&type=printable |
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| author | Donald A Berry Scott Berry Peter Hale Leah Isakov Andrew W Lo Kien Wei Siah Chi Heem Wong |
| author_facet | Donald A Berry Scott Berry Peter Hale Leah Isakov Andrew W Lo Kien Wei Siah Chi Heem Wong |
| author_sort | Donald A Berry |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, including traditional and adaptive randomized clinical trials and human challenge trials. Using epidemiological models calibrated to the current pandemic, we simulate the time course of each clinical trial design for 756 unique combinations of parameters, allowing us to determine which trial design is most effective for a given scenario. A human challenge trial provides maximal net benefits-averting an additional 1.1M infections and 8,000 deaths in the U.S. compared to the next best clinical trial design-if its set-up time is short or the pandemic spreads slowly. In most of the other cases, an adaptive trial provides greater net benefits. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-30e6ac668198414a8c970e0215f9ac9b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-30e6ac668198414a8c970e0215f9ac9b2025-02-05T05:33:00ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-011512e024441810.1371/journal.pone.0244418A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates.Donald A BerryScott BerryPeter HaleLeah IsakovAndrew W LoKien Wei SiahChi Heem WongWe compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, including traditional and adaptive randomized clinical trials and human challenge trials. Using epidemiological models calibrated to the current pandemic, we simulate the time course of each clinical trial design for 756 unique combinations of parameters, allowing us to determine which trial design is most effective for a given scenario. A human challenge trial provides maximal net benefits-averting an additional 1.1M infections and 8,000 deaths in the U.S. compared to the next best clinical trial design-if its set-up time is short or the pandemic spreads slowly. In most of the other cases, an adaptive trial provides greater net benefits.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244418&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Donald A Berry Scott Berry Peter Hale Leah Isakov Andrew W Lo Kien Wei Siah Chi Heem Wong A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. PLoS ONE |
| title | A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. |
| title_full | A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. |
| title_fullStr | A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. |
| title_full_unstemmed | A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. |
| title_short | A cost/benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. |
| title_sort | cost benefit analysis of clinical trial designs for covid 19 vaccine candidates |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244418&type=printable |
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