A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data

Ship collisions pose a significant threat to maritime safety, especially in congested precautionary areas with high vessel traffic density. Traditional collision risk assessment methods, such as distance to closest point of approach (DCPA) and time to closest point of approach (TCPA), often overlook...

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Main Authors: Yu Zhong, Hongzhu Zhou, Manel Grifoll, Agustí Martín, Yusheng Zhou, Jiao Liu, Pengjun Zheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Systems
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/5/338
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author Yu Zhong
Hongzhu Zhou
Manel Grifoll
Agustí Martín
Yusheng Zhou
Jiao Liu
Pengjun Zheng
author_facet Yu Zhong
Hongzhu Zhou
Manel Grifoll
Agustí Martín
Yusheng Zhou
Jiao Liu
Pengjun Zheng
author_sort Yu Zhong
collection DOAJ
description Ship collisions pose a significant threat to maritime safety, especially in congested precautionary areas with high vessel traffic density. Traditional collision risk assessment methods, such as distance to closest point of approach (DCPA) and time to closest point of approach (TCPA), often overlook environmental uncertainties and variations in human response. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel approach for collision risk assessment using automatic identification system (AIS) data. AIS data from vessels in precautionary areas are resampled to synchronize their temporal frameworks, enabling the systematic identification of ship encounters. Each encounter is analyzed by evaluating critical parameters, including the minimum ship encounter distance (MSED), relative azimuth angles, and trajectories, within a customized ship domain model that incorporates vessel characteristics such as ship length and course. Key metrics, such as intrusion depth and time, are calculated based on vessels’ entry and exit points during each encounter. A set of collision risk indices, which integrates both intrusion depth and time, is introduced, with particular emphasis on intrusion depth due to its heightened sensitivity to proximity danger and constrained maneuvering space. An extensive analysis of vessel interactions in the precautionary area establishes a holistic collision risk index. A case study using AIS data from Ningbo–Zhoushan Port, involving a dataset of 1000 ship encounters, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. Specifically, the holistic collision risk in the No.2 precautionary area is 0.456, while the No.3 precautionary area shows a risk value of 0.443. These results confirm the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method for evaluating and classifying collision risks, offering a more precise and reliable framework for collision risk assessment in complex navigational environments.
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spelling doaj-art-2a0534399e844c0a863e0fedca9fac782025-08-20T01:56:39ZengMDPI AGSystems2079-89542025-05-0113533810.3390/systems13050338A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS DataYu Zhong0Hongzhu Zhou1Manel Grifoll2Agustí Martín3Yusheng Zhou4Jiao Liu5Pengjun Zheng6Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, ChinaFaculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, ChinaBarcelona School of Nautical Studies, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC–BarcelonaTech), 08003 Barcelona, SpainBarcelona School of Nautical Studies, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC–BarcelonaTech), 08003 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Logistics and Maritime Studies, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hongkong 999077, ChinaFaculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, ChinaFaculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, ChinaShip collisions pose a significant threat to maritime safety, especially in congested precautionary areas with high vessel traffic density. Traditional collision risk assessment methods, such as distance to closest point of approach (DCPA) and time to closest point of approach (TCPA), often overlook environmental uncertainties and variations in human response. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel approach for collision risk assessment using automatic identification system (AIS) data. AIS data from vessels in precautionary areas are resampled to synchronize their temporal frameworks, enabling the systematic identification of ship encounters. Each encounter is analyzed by evaluating critical parameters, including the minimum ship encounter distance (MSED), relative azimuth angles, and trajectories, within a customized ship domain model that incorporates vessel characteristics such as ship length and course. Key metrics, such as intrusion depth and time, are calculated based on vessels’ entry and exit points during each encounter. A set of collision risk indices, which integrates both intrusion depth and time, is introduced, with particular emphasis on intrusion depth due to its heightened sensitivity to proximity danger and constrained maneuvering space. An extensive analysis of vessel interactions in the precautionary area establishes a holistic collision risk index. A case study using AIS data from Ningbo–Zhoushan Port, involving a dataset of 1000 ship encounters, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. Specifically, the holistic collision risk in the No.2 precautionary area is 0.456, while the No.3 precautionary area shows a risk value of 0.443. These results confirm the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method for evaluating and classifying collision risks, offering a more precise and reliable framework for collision risk assessment in complex navigational environments.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/5/338AIS datacollision riskprecautionary areaship domainrisk assessment indices
spellingShingle Yu Zhong
Hongzhu Zhou
Manel Grifoll
Agustí Martín
Yusheng Zhou
Jiao Liu
Pengjun Zheng
A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
Systems
AIS data
collision risk
precautionary area
ship domain
risk assessment indices
title A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
title_full A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
title_fullStr A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
title_full_unstemmed A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
title_short A Novel Method for Holistic Collision Risk Assessment in the Precautionary Area Using AIS Data
title_sort novel method for holistic collision risk assessment in the precautionary area using ais data
topic AIS data
collision risk
precautionary area
ship domain
risk assessment indices
url https://www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/13/5/338
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