High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
Abstract The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00919-y |
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| author | Paul-Arthur Monerie Xiangbo Feng Kevin Hodges Ralf Toumi |
| author_facet | Paul-Arthur Monerie Xiangbo Feng Kevin Hodges Ralf Toumi |
| author_sort | Paul-Arthur Monerie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-22ad4c5c1c9e434a9ee8de130c8c99f4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-22ad4c5c1c9e434a9ee8de130c8c99f42025-01-26T12:22:30ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-01811910.1038/s41612-025-00919-yHigh prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4Paul-Arthur Monerie0Xiangbo Feng1Kevin Hodges2Ralf Toumi3Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of ReadingDepartment of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of ReadingDepartment of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of ReadingDepartment of Physics, Imperial CollegeAbstract The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00919-y |
| spellingShingle | Paul-Arthur Monerie Xiangbo Feng Kevin Hodges Ralf Toumi High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 |
| title_full | High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 |
| title_fullStr | High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 |
| title_full_unstemmed | High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 |
| title_short | High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 |
| title_sort | high prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the north atlantic and east pacific in the met office decadal prediction system depresys4 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00919-y |
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