Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
Transport planning relies extensively on forecasts of traveler behavior over horizons of 20 years and more. Implicit in such forecasts is the assumption that travelers’ tastes, as represented by the behavioral model parameters, are constant over time. In technical terms, this assumption is referred...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing
2014-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Transport and Land Use |
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| Online Access: | https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/701 |
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| author | James Fox Andrew Daly Stephane Hess Eric Miller |
| author_facet | James Fox Andrew Daly Stephane Hess Eric Miller |
| author_sort | James Fox |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Transport planning relies extensively on forecasts of traveler behavior over horizons of 20 years and more. Implicit in such forecasts is the assumption that travelers’ tastes, as represented by the behavioral model parameters, are constant over time. In technical terms, this assumption is referred to as the "temporal transferability" of the models. This paper summarizes the findings from a literature review that demonstrates there is little evidence about the transferability of mode-destination models over typical forecasting horizons. The literature review shows a relative lack of empirical studies given the importance of the issue. To provide further insights and evidence, models of commuter mode-destination choice been developed from household interview data collected across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in 1986, 1996, 2001, and 2006. The analysis demonstrates that improving model specification improves the transferability of the models, and in general the transferability declines as the transfer period increases. The transferability of the level-of-service parameters is higher than transferability of the cost parameters, which has important implications when considering the accuracy of forecasts for different types of policy. The transferred models over-predict the key change in mode share over the transfer period—specifically, the shift from local transit to auto driver between 1986 and 1996—but under-predict the growth in commuting tour lengths over the same period. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-20959191af8642f09176cdabb5c7bb58 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1938-7849 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-07-01 |
| publisher | University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Transport and Land Use |
| spelling | doaj-art-20959191af8642f09176cdabb5c7bb582025-08-20T03:10:01ZengUniversity of Minnesota Libraries PublishingJournal of Transport and Land Use1938-78492014-07-017210.5198/jtlu.v7i2.701163Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton AreaJames Fox0Andrew Daly1Stephane Hess2Eric Miller3Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsUniversity of LeedsUniversity of LeedsUniversity of TorontoTransport planning relies extensively on forecasts of traveler behavior over horizons of 20 years and more. Implicit in such forecasts is the assumption that travelers’ tastes, as represented by the behavioral model parameters, are constant over time. In technical terms, this assumption is referred to as the "temporal transferability" of the models. This paper summarizes the findings from a literature review that demonstrates there is little evidence about the transferability of mode-destination models over typical forecasting horizons. The literature review shows a relative lack of empirical studies given the importance of the issue. To provide further insights and evidence, models of commuter mode-destination choice been developed from household interview data collected across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in 1986, 1996, 2001, and 2006. The analysis demonstrates that improving model specification improves the transferability of the models, and in general the transferability declines as the transfer period increases. The transferability of the level-of-service parameters is higher than transferability of the cost parameters, which has important implications when considering the accuracy of forecasts for different types of policy. The transferred models over-predict the key change in mode share over the transfer period—specifically, the shift from local transit to auto driver between 1986 and 1996—but under-predict the growth in commuting tour lengths over the same period.https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/701Transferabilitytemporalmode-destination choice |
| spellingShingle | James Fox Andrew Daly Stephane Hess Eric Miller Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Journal of Transport and Land Use Transferability temporal mode-destination choice |
| title | Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area |
| title_full | Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area |
| title_fullStr | Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area |
| title_short | Temporal transferability of models of mode-destination choice for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area |
| title_sort | temporal transferability of models of mode destination choice for the greater toronto and hamilton area |
| topic | Transferability temporal mode-destination choice |
| url | https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/701 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jamesfox temporaltransferabilityofmodelsofmodedestinationchoiceforthegreatertorontoandhamiltonarea AT andrewdaly temporaltransferabilityofmodelsofmodedestinationchoiceforthegreatertorontoandhamiltonarea AT stephanehess temporaltransferabilityofmodelsofmodedestinationchoiceforthegreatertorontoandhamiltonarea AT ericmiller temporaltransferabilityofmodelsofmodedestinationchoiceforthegreatertorontoandhamiltonarea |