Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading
Abstract This study investigates the complex relationship between geopolitical risks and carbon emissions, highlighting the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading. A threshold effect model combined with bootstrap estimation is applied to panel data from 41 countries. The results indicate t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Nature
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05172-5 |
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| author | Rongrong Li Qiang Wang Xueting Li |
| author_facet | Rongrong Li Qiang Wang Xueting Li |
| author_sort | Rongrong Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study investigates the complex relationship between geopolitical risks and carbon emissions, highlighting the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading. A threshold effect model combined with bootstrap estimation is applied to panel data from 41 countries. The results indicate that geopolitical risks significantly influence carbon emissions, with divergent impacts observed across different economic contexts. In high-income countries, geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased carbon emissions due to strategic shifts in energy resource allocation. Conversely, in lower-income countries, such risks often result in decreased energy demand and reduced emissions. The study further examines how industrial structure upgrading modulates the interaction between geopolitical risks and carbon emissions. The results indicate that industrial structure upgrading exhibits a double-threshold effect. As the industrial structure value changes, the impact coefficient of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions globally decreases from 0.103 to −0.030, whereas in high-income countries, the coefficient decreases from 0.048 to –0.029. This study offers policy insights for mitigating carbon emissions in the context of geopolitical risks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1830d9dd7d144dc0b964fc576002970f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-9992 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-1830d9dd7d144dc0b964fc576002970f2025-08-20T02:06:20ZengSpringer NatureHumanities & Social Sciences Communications2662-99922025-06-0112111510.1057/s41599-025-05172-5Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgradingRongrong Li0Qiang Wang1Xueting Li2School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China)School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China)School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China)Abstract This study investigates the complex relationship between geopolitical risks and carbon emissions, highlighting the mediating role of industrial structure upgrading. A threshold effect model combined with bootstrap estimation is applied to panel data from 41 countries. The results indicate that geopolitical risks significantly influence carbon emissions, with divergent impacts observed across different economic contexts. In high-income countries, geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased carbon emissions due to strategic shifts in energy resource allocation. Conversely, in lower-income countries, such risks often result in decreased energy demand and reduced emissions. The study further examines how industrial structure upgrading modulates the interaction between geopolitical risks and carbon emissions. The results indicate that industrial structure upgrading exhibits a double-threshold effect. As the industrial structure value changes, the impact coefficient of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions globally decreases from 0.103 to −0.030, whereas in high-income countries, the coefficient decreases from 0.048 to –0.029. This study offers policy insights for mitigating carbon emissions in the context of geopolitical risks.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05172-5 |
| spellingShingle | Rongrong Li Qiang Wang Xueting Li Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| title | Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| title_full | Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| title_fullStr | Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| title_short | Geopolitical risks and carbon emissions: the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| title_sort | geopolitical risks and carbon emissions the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05172-5 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rongrongli geopoliticalrisksandcarbonemissionsthemediatingeffectofindustrialstructureupgrading AT qiangwang geopoliticalrisksandcarbonemissionsthemediatingeffectofindustrialstructureupgrading AT xuetingli geopoliticalrisksandcarbonemissionsthemediatingeffectofindustrialstructureupgrading |