Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe
Synchronous extreme fire weather can significantly increase the probability of fire ignition and spread, posing compounding threats to fire management efforts and potentially overwhelming firefighting capabilities. While substantial evidence indicates that weather conditions conducive to wildfires w...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c2 |
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| author | Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Francesca Di Giuseppe Alberto Moreno-Torreira Andrina Gincheva Sonia Jerez Marco Turco |
| author_facet | Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Francesca Di Giuseppe Alberto Moreno-Torreira Andrina Gincheva Sonia Jerez Marco Turco |
| author_sort | Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Synchronous extreme fire weather can significantly increase the probability of fire ignition and spread, posing compounding threats to fire management efforts and potentially overwhelming firefighting capabilities. While substantial evidence indicates that weather conditions conducive to wildfires will likely become more frequent with higher levels of global warming, changes in extreme fire weather synchronicity remain understudied. Here, we quantify the synchronicity of extreme fire weather in Europe by analysing historical data of the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) from 1981 to 2022 and projecting FWI future scenarios with temperature increases from 1 °C to 6 °C and precipitation changes from −40% to +60%. Our results highlight Central Europe (CEU) as a significant hotspot, with synchronicity increases of up to 389%, while the Mediterranean region could see increases up to 66%. These findings emphasize the growing need for enhanced cross-border coordination and proactive fire management strategies to address the rising likelihood of concurrent extreme fire weather conditions in a warming climate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-0e8745bbb8e5457c8614b5c941861bcc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-0e8745bbb8e5457c8614b5c941861bcc2025-01-30T16:22:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120202404510.1088/1748-9326/ada8c2Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over EuropeMiguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8897-9337Francesca Di Giuseppe1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9829-0429Alberto Moreno-Torreira2Andrina Gincheva3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6212-2087Sonia Jerez4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2153-1658Marco Turco5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8589-7459Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia , Murcia, SpainEuropean Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) , Reading, United KingdomRegional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia , Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia , Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia , Murcia, SpainRegional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia , Murcia, SpainSynchronous extreme fire weather can significantly increase the probability of fire ignition and spread, posing compounding threats to fire management efforts and potentially overwhelming firefighting capabilities. While substantial evidence indicates that weather conditions conducive to wildfires will likely become more frequent with higher levels of global warming, changes in extreme fire weather synchronicity remain understudied. Here, we quantify the synchronicity of extreme fire weather in Europe by analysing historical data of the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) from 1981 to 2022 and projecting FWI future scenarios with temperature increases from 1 °C to 6 °C and precipitation changes from −40% to +60%. Our results highlight Central Europe (CEU) as a significant hotspot, with synchronicity increases of up to 389%, while the Mediterranean region could see increases up to 66%. These findings emphasize the growing need for enhanced cross-border coordination and proactive fire management strategies to address the rising likelihood of concurrent extreme fire weather conditions in a warming climate.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c2FWIsynchronicityEurope |
| spellingShingle | Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez Francesca Di Giuseppe Alberto Moreno-Torreira Andrina Gincheva Sonia Jerez Marco Turco Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe Environmental Research Letters FWI synchronicity Europe |
| title | Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe |
| title_full | Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe |
| title_fullStr | Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe |
| title_short | Large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over Europe |
| title_sort | large increase in extreme fire weather synchronicity over europe |
| topic | FWI synchronicity Europe |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ada8c2 |
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