Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures
BackgroundIntertrochanteric fractures are one of the most common types of hip fractures, with delayed surgical treatment beyond 48 h associated with increased postoperative complications and mortality, especially in older adults. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for delayed preoperativ...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2024.1503719/full |
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| author | Rui Gong Xi-min Jin Lian-you Xu Zhi-meng Zhang Dao-tong Yuan Wen-peng Xie Yong-kui Zhang |
| author_facet | Rui Gong Xi-min Jin Lian-you Xu Zhi-meng Zhang Dao-tong Yuan Wen-peng Xie Yong-kui Zhang |
| author_sort | Rui Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundIntertrochanteric fractures are one of the most common types of hip fractures, with delayed surgical treatment beyond 48 h associated with increased postoperative complications and mortality, especially in older adults. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for delayed preoperative waiting times in intertrochanteric fracture cases, based on previous research, to offer a valuable reference for clinical decision-making.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,116 patients with intertrochanteric fractures admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine for internal fixation surgery from January 2017 to January 2024. Patient demographic data and clinical examination results were collected. A logistic regression model was used to construct a predictive model, which was then visualized through a nomogram. The model’s performance was subsequently validated.ResultsThe predictive model developed from 728 patients in the training cohort, identified key predictors, including age, sex, lower extremity deep vein thrombosis, injury location, and biochemical markers. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.749 (95% confidence interval: 0.621–0.801) for the training set, and 0.745 in the validation set. Calibration curves indicated that the predicted risk of surgical delay closely aligned with observed outcomes. Furthermore, decision curve analysis verified the model’s clinical utility, demonstrating its effectiveness in guiding treatment decisions.ConclusionThe nomogram model developed in this study provides a reliable tool for predicting delayed surgical intervention in patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures. It offers clinicians a valuable reference to anticipate delays in surgical treatment and aids in the formulation of more timely and appropriate treatment strategies, potentially improving patient outcomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-08df08493b644673bf4fa39a7b726c35 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-858X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-08df08493b644673bf4fa39a7b726c352025-01-17T06:51:02ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Medicine2296-858X2025-01-011110.3389/fmed.2024.15037191503719Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fracturesRui Gong0Xi-min Jin1Lian-you Xu2Zhi-meng Zhang3Dao-tong Yuan4Wen-peng Xie5Yong-kui Zhang6First Clinical College, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, ChinaFirst Clinical College, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, ChinaFirst Clinical College, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, ChinaFirst Clinical College, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, ChinaFirst Clinical College, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Afliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, Shandong, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Afliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, Shandong, ChinaBackgroundIntertrochanteric fractures are one of the most common types of hip fractures, with delayed surgical treatment beyond 48 h associated with increased postoperative complications and mortality, especially in older adults. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for delayed preoperative waiting times in intertrochanteric fracture cases, based on previous research, to offer a valuable reference for clinical decision-making.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on 1,116 patients with intertrochanteric fractures admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine for internal fixation surgery from January 2017 to January 2024. Patient demographic data and clinical examination results were collected. A logistic regression model was used to construct a predictive model, which was then visualized through a nomogram. The model’s performance was subsequently validated.ResultsThe predictive model developed from 728 patients in the training cohort, identified key predictors, including age, sex, lower extremity deep vein thrombosis, injury location, and biochemical markers. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.749 (95% confidence interval: 0.621–0.801) for the training set, and 0.745 in the validation set. Calibration curves indicated that the predicted risk of surgical delay closely aligned with observed outcomes. Furthermore, decision curve analysis verified the model’s clinical utility, demonstrating its effectiveness in guiding treatment decisions.ConclusionThe nomogram model developed in this study provides a reliable tool for predicting delayed surgical intervention in patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures. It offers clinicians a valuable reference to anticipate delays in surgical treatment and aids in the formulation of more timely and appropriate treatment strategies, potentially improving patient outcomes.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2024.1503719/fullintertrochanteric fracturespreoperative waiting timerisk factorsnomogramsmodel |
| spellingShingle | Rui Gong Xi-min Jin Lian-you Xu Zhi-meng Zhang Dao-tong Yuan Wen-peng Xie Yong-kui Zhang Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures Frontiers in Medicine intertrochanteric fractures preoperative waiting time risk factors nomograms model |
| title | Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| title_full | Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| title_fullStr | Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| title_short | Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| title_sort | construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of prolonged preoperative waiting time in patients with intertrochanteric fractures |
| topic | intertrochanteric fractures preoperative waiting time risk factors nomograms model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2024.1503719/full |
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