Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research
Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. S...
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2024-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964 |
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| author | Denny M. Oliveira Robert C. Allen Livia R. Alves Séan P. Blake Brett A. Carter Dibyendu Chakrabarty Giulia D’Angelo Kevin Delano Ezequiel Echer Cristian P. Ferradas Matt G. Finley Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt Dan Gershman Jesper W. Gjerloev John Bosco Habarulema Michael D. Hartinger Rajkumar Hajra Hisashi Hayakawa Liisa Juusola Karl M. Laundal Robert J. Leamon Michael Madelaire Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma Scott M. McIntosh Yoshizumi Miyoshi Mark B. Moldwin Emmanuel Nahayo Dibyendu Nandy Bhosale Nilam Katariina Nykyri William R. Paterson Mirko Piersanti Ermanno Pietropaolo Craig J. Rodger Trunali Shah Andy W. Smith Nandita Srivastava Bruce T. Tsurutani S. Tulasi Ram Lisa A. Upton Bhaskara Veenadhari Sergio Vidal‐Luengo Ari Viljanen Sarah K. Vines Vipin K. Yadav Jeng‐Hwa Yee James W. Weygand Eftyhia Zesta |
| author_facet | Denny M. Oliveira Robert C. Allen Livia R. Alves Séan P. Blake Brett A. Carter Dibyendu Chakrabarty Giulia D’Angelo Kevin Delano Ezequiel Echer Cristian P. Ferradas Matt G. Finley Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt Dan Gershman Jesper W. Gjerloev John Bosco Habarulema Michael D. Hartinger Rajkumar Hajra Hisashi Hayakawa Liisa Juusola Karl M. Laundal Robert J. Leamon Michael Madelaire Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma Scott M. McIntosh Yoshizumi Miyoshi Mark B. Moldwin Emmanuel Nahayo Dibyendu Nandy Bhosale Nilam Katariina Nykyri William R. Paterson Mirko Piersanti Ermanno Pietropaolo Craig J. Rodger Trunali Shah Andy W. Smith Nandita Srivastava Bruce T. Tsurutani S. Tulasi Ram Lisa A. Upton Bhaskara Veenadhari Sergio Vidal‐Luengo Ari Viljanen Sarah K. Vines Vipin K. Yadav Jeng‐Hwa Yee James W. Weygand Eftyhia Zesta |
| author_sort | Denny M. Oliveira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-028210efeebf46cca3f93604ec4e4a09 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-028210efeebf46cca3f93604ec4e4a092025-01-14T16:27:32ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-08-01228n/an/a10.1029/2024SW003964Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather ResearchDenny M. Oliveira0Robert C. Allen1Livia R. Alves2Séan P. Blake3Brett A. Carter4Dibyendu Chakrabarty5Giulia D’Angelo6Kevin Delano7Ezequiel Echer8Cristian P. Ferradas9Matt G. Finley10Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt11Dan Gershman12Jesper W. Gjerloev13John Bosco Habarulema14Michael D. Hartinger15Rajkumar Hajra16Hisashi Hayakawa17Liisa Juusola18Karl M. Laundal19Robert J. Leamon20Michael Madelaire21Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma22Scott M. McIntosh23Yoshizumi Miyoshi24Mark B. Moldwin25Emmanuel Nahayo26Dibyendu Nandy27Bhosale Nilam28Katariina Nykyri29William R. Paterson30Mirko Piersanti31Ermanno Pietropaolo32Craig J. Rodger33Trunali Shah34Andy W. Smith35Nandita Srivastava36Bruce T. Tsurutani37S. Tulasi Ram38Lisa A. Upton39Bhaskara Veenadhari40Sergio Vidal‐Luengo41Ari Viljanen42Sarah K. Vines43Vipin K. Yadav44Jeng‐Hwa Yee45James W. Weygand46Eftyhia Zesta47Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USASouthwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USANational Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos BrazilSchool of Physics Trinity College Dublin Dublin IrelandSPACE Science Centre School of Science RMIT University Melbourne VIC AustraliaSpace and Atmospheric Science Division Physical Research Laboratory Ahmedabad Ahmedabad IndiaDepartment of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila ItalyGoddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USANational Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos BrazilNASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USAJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USASouth African National Space Agency Hermanus South AfricaSpace Science Institute Boulder CO USACAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei People's Republic of ChinaInstitute for Space‐Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University Nagoya JapanFinnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki FinlandDepartment of Physics and Technology Birkeland Centre for Space Science University of Bergen Bergen NorwayGoddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USADepartment of Physics and Technology Birkeland Centre for Space Science University of Bergen Bergen NorwayNASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAInstitute for Space‐Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University Nagoya JapanDepartment of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USASouth African National Space Agency Hermanus South AfricaDepartment of Physical Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata Mohanpur West Bengal IndiaIndian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai IndiaNASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USADepartment of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila ItalyDepartment of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila ItalyDepartment of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandIndian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne UKPhysical Research Laboratory Udaipur Solar Observatory Udaipur IndiaRetired Pasadena CA USAIndian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai IndiaSouthwest Research Institute Boulder CO USAIndian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai IndiaLaboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado Boulder CO USAFinnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki FinlandSouthwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USASpace Physics Laboratory (SPL) Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) Thiruvananthapuram IndiaJohns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USADepartment of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USAAbstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964space weatherinterplanetary shocksmachine learningsolar cycle 25sunspot numbers |
| spellingShingle | Denny M. Oliveira Robert C. Allen Livia R. Alves Séan P. Blake Brett A. Carter Dibyendu Chakrabarty Giulia D’Angelo Kevin Delano Ezequiel Echer Cristian P. Ferradas Matt G. Finley Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt Dan Gershman Jesper W. Gjerloev John Bosco Habarulema Michael D. Hartinger Rajkumar Hajra Hisashi Hayakawa Liisa Juusola Karl M. Laundal Robert J. Leamon Michael Madelaire Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma Scott M. McIntosh Yoshizumi Miyoshi Mark B. Moldwin Emmanuel Nahayo Dibyendu Nandy Bhosale Nilam Katariina Nykyri William R. Paterson Mirko Piersanti Ermanno Pietropaolo Craig J. Rodger Trunali Shah Andy W. Smith Nandita Srivastava Bruce T. Tsurutani S. Tulasi Ram Lisa A. Upton Bhaskara Veenadhari Sergio Vidal‐Luengo Ari Viljanen Sarah K. Vines Vipin K. Yadav Jeng‐Hwa Yee James W. Weygand Eftyhia Zesta Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research Space Weather space weather interplanetary shocks machine learning solar cycle 25 sunspot numbers |
| title | Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research |
| title_full | Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research |
| title_short | Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research |
| title_sort | predicting interplanetary shock occurrence for solar cycle 25 opportunities and challenges in space weather research |
| topic | space weather interplanetary shocks machine learning solar cycle 25 sunspot numbers |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964 |
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