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    Development and validation of an improved prediction model for vaginal birth after previous cesarean section: a retrospective cohort study of a Chinese population by Haiyan Liu, Yi Yu, Xiaoyue Zhang, Jiangnan Pei, Yao Tang, Rong Hu, Weirong Gu

    Published 2025-12-01
    “…Internal validation performed by bootstrap resampling, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed the model’s robust performance. An optimal predicted probability cut-off of 0.7 was identified by decision curve analysis and clinical considerations.Conclusions The improved predictive VBAC model exhibited adequate performance such that women with a prior low transverse cesarean delivery who scored 0.7 or higher (in the model-derived probability score) would consider TOLAC, potentially leading to a reduction in maternal-neonatal morbidity.Registration The study was approved by the Ethical Committee of Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, Fudan University (2018-43) and was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR1900022484), https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.html?…”
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