SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries.
The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contact with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments...
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Kabale University
2024
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12493/2023 |
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| author | Oduro, Michael Safo Arhin‐Donkor, Seth Asiedu, Louis Kadengye, Damazo T. Iddi, Samuel |
| author_facet | Oduro, Michael Safo Arhin‐Donkor, Seth Asiedu, Louis Kadengye, Damazo T. Iddi, Samuel |
| author_sort | Oduro, Michael Safo |
| collection | KAB-DR |
| description | The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contact with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at its early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, R0 based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic.
The region’s basic reproduction number (R0) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan (R0: 2.03), Ghana (R0: 1.87), and Somalia (R0: 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:idr.kab.ac.ug:20.500.12493-2023 |
| institution | KAB-DR |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Kabale University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:idr.kab.ac.ug:20.500.12493-20232024-06-05T00:00:30Z SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Oduro, Michael Safo Arhin‐Donkor, Seth Asiedu, Louis Kadengye, Damazo T. Iddi, Samuel COVID-19 Infectious disease Basic reproduction number Sub-Saharan Africa Transmission The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contact with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at its early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, R0 based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region’s basic reproduction number (R0) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan (R0: 2.03), Ghana (R0: 1.87), and Somalia (R0: 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature. 2024-06-04T16:53:51Z 2024-06-04T16:53:51Z 2024 Article Oduro, M. S. et al. (2024). SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Kabale: Kabale university. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12493/2023 en_US application/pdf Kabale University |
| spellingShingle | COVID-19 Infectious disease Basic reproduction number Sub-Saharan Africa Transmission Oduro, Michael Safo Arhin‐Donkor, Seth Asiedu, Louis Kadengye, Damazo T. Iddi, Samuel SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title | SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title_full | SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title_fullStr | SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title_short | SARS-Cov-2 Incidence Monitoring and Statistical Estimation of the Basic and Time-Varying Reproduction Number at the Early Onset of the Pandemic in 45 Sub-Saharan African Countries. |
| title_sort | sars cov 2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub saharan african countries |
| topic | COVID-19 Infectious disease Basic reproduction number Sub-Saharan Africa Transmission |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12493/2023 |
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