Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations
Abstract Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079176 |
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| author | E. M. Fischer U. Beyerle C. F. Schleussner A. D. King R. Knutti |
| author_facet | E. M. Fischer U. Beyerle C. F. Schleussner A. D. King R. Knutti |
| author_sort | E. M. Fischer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) instead of using a fully coupled climate model. Based on the identical climate model used in two experimental setups, we demonstrate that particularly over the tropics and Australia estimates of the changes in the odds of annual temperature extremes can be up to more than a factor of 5 to 10 larger using prescribed SSTs rather than a fully coupled model configuration. The two experimental designs imply a different perspective on framing projections. If experiments conditional on prescribed observed SSTs are interpreted as unconditional real‐world projections, they project changes in extremes that are systematically biased high and overconfident. Our results illustrate the importance of carefully considering experimental design when interpreting projections of extremes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ffebd40aa5a04e449dedbcb7e6c4995b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-ffebd40aa5a04e449dedbcb7e6c4995b2025-08-20T02:57:52ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-08-0145168500850910.1029/2018GL079176Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST SimulationsE. M. Fischer0U. Beyerle1C. F. Schleussner2A. D. King3R. Knutti4ETH Zurich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandETH Zurich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth Sciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria AustraliaETH Zurich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zurich SwitzerlandAbstract Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estimates of changes in the probability of temperature extremes at 1.5 °C global warming regionally differ if quantified using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) instead of using a fully coupled climate model. Based on the identical climate model used in two experimental setups, we demonstrate that particularly over the tropics and Australia estimates of the changes in the odds of annual temperature extremes can be up to more than a factor of 5 to 10 larger using prescribed SSTs rather than a fully coupled model configuration. The two experimental designs imply a different perspective on framing projections. If experiments conditional on prescribed observed SSTs are interpreted as unconditional real‐world projections, they project changes in extremes that are systematically biased high and overconfident. Our results illustrate the importance of carefully considering experimental design when interpreting projections of extremes.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079176extremesclimate variabilityattributionclimate model |
| spellingShingle | E. M. Fischer U. Beyerle C. F. Schleussner A. D. King R. Knutti Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations Geophysical Research Letters extremes climate variability attribution climate model |
| title | Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations |
| title_full | Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations |
| title_fullStr | Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations |
| title_short | Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations |
| title_sort | biased estimates of changes in climate extremes from prescribed sst simulations |
| topic | extremes climate variability attribution climate model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079176 |
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