Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China

Effective management of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for mitigating climate change, especially in regions like Guizhou Province, where significant carbon sequestration potential is challenged by urbanization and ecological initiatives. This study simulates the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon...

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Main Authors: Rui Chen, Xuehai Fei, Jingyu Zhu, Weiduo Chen, Haiqiang Du, Yingqian Huang, Yi Shen, Yong Zhang, Aping Niu, Peng Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-09-01
Series:Resources, Environment and Sustainability
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666916125000350
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author Rui Chen
Xuehai Fei
Jingyu Zhu
Weiduo Chen
Haiqiang Du
Yingqian Huang
Yi Shen
Yong Zhang
Aping Niu
Peng Xu
author_facet Rui Chen
Xuehai Fei
Jingyu Zhu
Weiduo Chen
Haiqiang Du
Yingqian Huang
Yi Shen
Yong Zhang
Aping Niu
Peng Xu
author_sort Rui Chen
collection DOAJ
description Effective management of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for mitigating climate change, especially in regions like Guizhou Province, where significant carbon sequestration potential is challenged by urbanization and ecological initiatives. This study simulates the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage in Guizhou under multiple land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios and explores their ecological and economic impacts. Specifically, LULC and ecosystem service data were applied to assess carbon storage and habitat quality from 1990 to 2020. LULC projections from 2030 to 2060, incorporating habitat quality constraints, were generated to assess carbon storage and its economic value. The results show that Guizhou’s carbon storage increased from 3423.13 Tg to 3475.42 Tg, with forest restoration increasing it by 301.62 Tg and agricultural expansion reducing it by 218.63 Tg. Projections indicate continued growth under the current trend, with 125.19 Tg of carbon sequestration valued at 11.29 billion Chinese Yuan by 2060. Ecological initiatives could accelerate these benefits, while urban expansion may limit them. Carbon storage in different sequences of development scenarios was similar, suggesting that later development strategies can partially offset earlier differences resulting from varying priorities. Nevertheless, it remains essential to consider the sequence effects on other ecosystem services and socioeconomic factors. These findings highlight the importance of ecological engineering and reveal the flexibility in balancing ecological goals with urban development, providing guidance for long-term integrated planning to achieve sustainable development. This study provides a methodological basis for carbon storage research, supporting regional land management practices in the context of carbon neutrality.
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spelling doaj-art-ff7eaa03f78f485786b5dd8eece2e32f2025-08-20T02:17:29ZengElsevierResources, Environment and Sustainability2666-91612025-09-012110022310.1016/j.resenv.2025.100223Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, ChinaRui Chen0Xuehai Fei1Jingyu Zhu2Weiduo Chen3Haiqiang Du4Yingqian Huang5Yi Shen6Yong Zhang7Aping Niu8Peng Xu9College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Provincial Double Carbon and Renewable Energy Technology Innovation Research Institute, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China; Corresponding author at: College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China.College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Provincial Double Carbon and Renewable Energy Technology Innovation Research Institute, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Key Laboratory of Karst Georesources and Environment (Guizhou University), Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Karst Environmental Ecosystems Observation and Research Station, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China; Guizhou Provincial Double Carbon and Renewable Energy Technology Innovation Research Institute, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, ChinaEffective management of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for mitigating climate change, especially in regions like Guizhou Province, where significant carbon sequestration potential is challenged by urbanization and ecological initiatives. This study simulates the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage in Guizhou under multiple land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios and explores their ecological and economic impacts. Specifically, LULC and ecosystem service data were applied to assess carbon storage and habitat quality from 1990 to 2020. LULC projections from 2030 to 2060, incorporating habitat quality constraints, were generated to assess carbon storage and its economic value. The results show that Guizhou’s carbon storage increased from 3423.13 Tg to 3475.42 Tg, with forest restoration increasing it by 301.62 Tg and agricultural expansion reducing it by 218.63 Tg. Projections indicate continued growth under the current trend, with 125.19 Tg of carbon sequestration valued at 11.29 billion Chinese Yuan by 2060. Ecological initiatives could accelerate these benefits, while urban expansion may limit them. Carbon storage in different sequences of development scenarios was similar, suggesting that later development strategies can partially offset earlier differences resulting from varying priorities. Nevertheless, it remains essential to consider the sequence effects on other ecosystem services and socioeconomic factors. These findings highlight the importance of ecological engineering and reveal the flexibility in balancing ecological goals with urban development, providing guidance for long-term integrated planning to achieve sustainable development. This study provides a methodological basis for carbon storage research, supporting regional land management practices in the context of carbon neutrality.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666916125000350Carbon storageLand use and land cover changeMulti-scenario simulationInVEST modelRepresentative karst ecosystem
spellingShingle Rui Chen
Xuehai Fei
Jingyu Zhu
Weiduo Chen
Haiqiang Du
Yingqian Huang
Yi Shen
Yong Zhang
Aping Niu
Peng Xu
Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
Resources, Environment and Sustainability
Carbon storage
Land use and land cover change
Multi-scenario simulation
InVEST model
Representative karst ecosystem
title Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
title_full Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
title_fullStr Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
title_short Assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization: A multi-scenario study of Guizhou Province, China
title_sort assessing carbon storage dynamics in an ecological civilization demonstration zone amid rapid urbanization a multi scenario study of guizhou province china
topic Carbon storage
Land use and land cover change
Multi-scenario simulation
InVEST model
Representative karst ecosystem
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666916125000350
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