Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis

Abstract Despite growing interest in green innovation and green investment as solutions to climate change, existing literature largely examines these elements in isolation, overlooking their combined effects and the contrasting role of non-green technologies. Addressing this gap, the present study i...

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Main Authors: Md. Idris Ali, Md. Atikur Rahaman, Mohammed Julfikar Ali
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer Nature 2025-07-01
Series:Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05486-4
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author Md. Idris Ali
Md. Atikur Rahaman
Mohammed Julfikar Ali
author_facet Md. Idris Ali
Md. Atikur Rahaman
Mohammed Julfikar Ali
author_sort Md. Idris Ali
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Despite growing interest in green innovation and green investment as solutions to climate change, existing literature largely examines these elements in isolation, overlooking their combined effects and the contrasting role of non-green technologies. Addressing this gap, the present study investigates the impact of both green and non-green technological innovations on carbon emissions in Canada, while incorporating the roles of green investment, institutional quality, and geopolitical risks. Using annual time series data from 1990 to 2023, the study employs a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) approach to explore the cointegrating and counterfactual relationships among these variables. The findings indicate that green innovation and green investment significantly enhance environmental quality by reducing carbon emissions. In contrast, non-green innovation, along with institutional quality and geopolitical risks, is associated with increased emissions and environmental degradation in the long run. Furthermore, the interactions among green and non-green innovations, as well as between green innovation and green investment, and non-green innovation and green investment, show negative links with carbon emissions. Additionally, a counterfactual analysis is conducted to assess the impact of ±1% and ±5% shocks from the independent variables on the dependent variable. To further validate the robustness of these findings, the study utilizes the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning algorithm. Finally, the study discusses key policy implications based on the results.
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spelling doaj-art-ff3ae23ebf314b69806b86f4a9a40a5e2025-08-20T03:46:00ZengSpringer NatureHumanities & Social Sciences Communications2662-99922025-07-0112111510.1057/s41599-025-05486-4Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysisMd. Idris Ali0Md. Atikur Rahaman1Mohammed Julfikar Ali2Toronto Metropolitan UniversityJiujiang UniversityPresidency UniversityAbstract Despite growing interest in green innovation and green investment as solutions to climate change, existing literature largely examines these elements in isolation, overlooking their combined effects and the contrasting role of non-green technologies. Addressing this gap, the present study investigates the impact of both green and non-green technological innovations on carbon emissions in Canada, while incorporating the roles of green investment, institutional quality, and geopolitical risks. Using annual time series data from 1990 to 2023, the study employs a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) approach to explore the cointegrating and counterfactual relationships among these variables. The findings indicate that green innovation and green investment significantly enhance environmental quality by reducing carbon emissions. In contrast, non-green innovation, along with institutional quality and geopolitical risks, is associated with increased emissions and environmental degradation in the long run. Furthermore, the interactions among green and non-green innovations, as well as between green innovation and green investment, and non-green innovation and green investment, show negative links with carbon emissions. Additionally, a counterfactual analysis is conducted to assess the impact of ±1% and ±5% shocks from the independent variables on the dependent variable. To further validate the robustness of these findings, the study utilizes the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning algorithm. Finally, the study discusses key policy implications based on the results.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05486-4
spellingShingle Md. Idris Ali
Md. Atikur Rahaman
Mohammed Julfikar Ali
Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
title Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
title_full Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
title_fullStr Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
title_full_unstemmed Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
title_short Green versus non-green technology innovation and environmental quality: Cointegration and counterfactual analysis
title_sort green versus non green technology innovation and environmental quality cointegration and counterfactual analysis
url https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05486-4
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AT mohammedjulfikarali greenversusnongreentechnologyinnovationandenvironmentalqualitycointegrationandcounterfactualanalysis