Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration

This study provides an objective evaluation of prediction performance models for particulate matter policy for industrial stakeholders by comparing the ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM models for predicting air quality data from the industrial environment. In the case of PM 1.0 concentration, we have an...

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Main Authors: Johanes Dian Kurniawan, Hanna Arini Parhusip, Suryasatria Trihandaru
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Department of Informatics, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung 2024-12-01
Series:JOIN: Jurnal Online Informatika
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Online Access:https://join.if.uinsgd.ac.id/index.php/join/article/view/1318
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author Johanes Dian Kurniawan
Hanna Arini Parhusip
Suryasatria Trihandaru
author_facet Johanes Dian Kurniawan
Hanna Arini Parhusip
Suryasatria Trihandaru
author_sort Johanes Dian Kurniawan
collection DOAJ
description This study provides an objective evaluation of prediction performance models for particulate matter policy for industrial stakeholders by comparing the ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM models for predicting air quality data from the industrial environment. In the case of PM 1.0 concentration, we have an RMSE value of 8.29 and an error ratio of 0.45 for the ARIMA model and an RMSE value of 3.54 and an error ratio of 0.22 for the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model. Meanwhile, for PM 2.5 concentration, we obtain an RMSE value of 6.61, an error ratio of 0.66 for the ARIMA model, an RMSE value of 2.68, and an error ratio of 0.19 for the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model. According to this study, the ARIMA model, which is found in autoarima and represents the best model, is (2,0,1) for PM1.0 and (1,0,1) for PM2.5. The hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model outperforms the ARIMA model in terms of prediction accuracy, as evidenced by the RMSE and error ratio values, which are improved by approximately 57.30% and 51.11% for PM1.0 and 59.46% and 71.21% for PM2.5, respectively, since the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model can accommodate variable-length sequences and capture long-term relationships to become noise-resistant, which makes higher prediction accuracy possible.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2528-1682
2527-9165
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publishDate 2024-12-01
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record_format Article
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spelling doaj-art-ff1a17f818974936bca652e90398ff012025-08-20T03:25:55ZengDepartment of Informatics, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati BandungJOIN: Jurnal Online Informatika2528-16822527-91652024-12-019225926810.15575/join.v9i2.13181319Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter ConcentrationJohanes Dian Kurniawan0Hanna Arini Parhusip1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0129-830XSuryasatria Trihandaru2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7147-1673Master of Data Science, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Satya Wacana Christian University, SalatigaMaster of Data Science, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Satya Wacana Christian University, SalatigaMaster of Data Science, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Satya Wacana Christian University, SalatigaThis study provides an objective evaluation of prediction performance models for particulate matter policy for industrial stakeholders by comparing the ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM models for predicting air quality data from the industrial environment. In the case of PM 1.0 concentration, we have an RMSE value of 8.29 and an error ratio of 0.45 for the ARIMA model and an RMSE value of 3.54 and an error ratio of 0.22 for the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model. Meanwhile, for PM 2.5 concentration, we obtain an RMSE value of 6.61, an error ratio of 0.66 for the ARIMA model, an RMSE value of 2.68, and an error ratio of 0.19 for the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model. According to this study, the ARIMA model, which is found in autoarima and represents the best model, is (2,0,1) for PM1.0 and (1,0,1) for PM2.5. The hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model outperforms the ARIMA model in terms of prediction accuracy, as evidenced by the RMSE and error ratio values, which are improved by approximately 57.30% and 51.11% for PM1.0 and 59.46% and 71.21% for PM2.5, respectively, since the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model can accommodate variable-length sequences and capture long-term relationships to become noise-resistant, which makes higher prediction accuracy possible.https://join.if.uinsgd.ac.id/index.php/join/article/view/1318arimahybrid arima-lstmparticulate matterprediction
spellingShingle Johanes Dian Kurniawan
Hanna Arini Parhusip
Suryasatria Trihandaru
Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
JOIN: Jurnal Online Informatika
arima
hybrid arima-lstm
particulate matter
prediction
title Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
title_full Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
title_fullStr Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
title_short Predictive Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM Models for Particulate Matter Concentration
title_sort predictive performance evaluation of arima and hybrid arima lstm models for particulate matter concentration
topic arima
hybrid arima-lstm
particulate matter
prediction
url https://join.if.uinsgd.ac.id/index.php/join/article/view/1318
work_keys_str_mv AT johanesdiankurniawan predictiveperformanceevaluationofarimaandhybridarimalstmmodelsforparticulatematterconcentration
AT hannaariniparhusip predictiveperformanceevaluationofarimaandhybridarimalstmmodelsforparticulatematterconcentration
AT suryasatriatrihandaru predictiveperformanceevaluationofarimaandhybridarimalstmmodelsforparticulatematterconcentration