Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation
The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, w...
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2024-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83 |
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| author | D. Brethauer D. Kasen R. Margutti R. Chornock |
| author_facet | D. Brethauer D. Kasen R. Margutti R. Chornock |
| author_sort | D. Brethauer |
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| description | The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r -process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r -process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6. |
| format | Article |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| spelling | doaj-art-ff14d4c6f61349348b25123e2629cebf2025-08-20T02:26:22ZengIOP PublishingThe Astrophysical Journal1538-43572024-01-01975221310.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property EstimationD. Brethauer0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6415-0903D. Kasen1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5981-1022R. Margutti2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4768-7586R. Chornock3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7706-5668Department of Astronomy, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720-3411, USA ; daniel_brethauer@berkeley.eduDepartment of Physics, University of California , 366 Physics North MC 7300, Berkeley, CA 94720, USADepartment of Astronomy, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720-3411, USA ; daniel_brethauer@berkeley.edu; Department of Physics, University of California , 366 Physics North MC 7300, Berkeley, CA 94720, USADepartment of Astronomy, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720-3411, USA ; daniel_brethauer@berkeley.eduThe precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r -process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r -process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83High energy astrophysicsGravitational wave sourcesTransient sourcesTime domain astronomy |
| spellingShingle | D. Brethauer D. Kasen R. Margutti R. Chornock Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation The Astrophysical Journal High energy astrophysics Gravitational wave sources Transient sources Time domain astronomy |
| title | Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation |
| title_full | Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation |
| title_short | Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation |
| title_sort | impact of systematic modeling uncertainties on kilonova property estimation |
| topic | High energy astrophysics Gravitational wave sources Transient sources Time domain astronomy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad7d83 |
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