Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf
The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), along with the St. Lawrence Estuary, is the largest estuarine system in North America. It is a biologically productive sea and an important fishing ground in Canada. The objectives of this study are to determine how climate changes will affect primary production in th...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1416744/full |
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| author | Zhi-Ping Mei Diane Lavoie Nicolas Lambert Nicolas Lambert Michel Starr Joël Chassé William Perrie Zhenxia Long |
| author_facet | Zhi-Ping Mei Diane Lavoie Nicolas Lambert Nicolas Lambert Michel Starr Joël Chassé William Perrie Zhenxia Long |
| author_sort | Zhi-Ping Mei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), along with the St. Lawrence Estuary, is the largest estuarine system in North America. It is a biologically productive sea and an important fishing ground in Canada. The objectives of this study are to determine how climate changes will affect primary production in the GSL and on the eastern Scotian Shelf, and to determine the drivers of the changes. We use a regional ocean model forced with downscaled output of the Max-Planck Institute Earth System Model to study the changes in net primary production under the climate change scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results reveal a projected 13.4% decrease in annual primary production across the GSL system over the next 70 years. This decline primarily stems from reduced nutrient concentrations in the upper layer, despite the increase in nutrients supplied by rivers. Enhanced freshwater influx and ocean surface warming contribute to heightened stratification, that in turn reduce the vertical nutrient fluxes from deeper layers. This mechanism affects the upwelling of nutrient-rich water at the head of the Laurentian Channel in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary, leading to a 22% reduction in the vertical nitrate flux in the future. Additionally, nutrient concentrations in the water masses entering the GSL at the Strait of Belle Isle and at Cabot Strait are also reduced. Due to declining sea-ice concentration, the phytoplankton bloom is expected to occur between 9 and 23 days earlier under a warmer climate, and last for up to 24 days longer, depending on the GSL subregions, compared to the historical period (2001-2020). Biological productivity at higher trophic levels, and thus fisheries productivity, could be negatively impacted under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-feed95c6b64c460d945a47219e15e5d5 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-feed95c6b64c460d945a47219e15e5d52025-08-20T01:57:19ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452024-08-011110.3389/fmars.2024.14167441416744Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian ShelfZhi-Ping Mei0Diane Lavoie1Nicolas Lambert2Nicolas Lambert3Michel Starr4Joël Chassé5William Perrie6Zhenxia Long7Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, NS, CanadaMaurice-Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, QC, CanadaGulf Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Moncton, NB, CanadaCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, CanadaMaurice-Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, QC, CanadaGulf Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Moncton, NB, CanadaBedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, NS, CanadaBedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, NS, CanadaThe Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), along with the St. Lawrence Estuary, is the largest estuarine system in North America. It is a biologically productive sea and an important fishing ground in Canada. The objectives of this study are to determine how climate changes will affect primary production in the GSL and on the eastern Scotian Shelf, and to determine the drivers of the changes. We use a regional ocean model forced with downscaled output of the Max-Planck Institute Earth System Model to study the changes in net primary production under the climate change scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results reveal a projected 13.4% decrease in annual primary production across the GSL system over the next 70 years. This decline primarily stems from reduced nutrient concentrations in the upper layer, despite the increase in nutrients supplied by rivers. Enhanced freshwater influx and ocean surface warming contribute to heightened stratification, that in turn reduce the vertical nutrient fluxes from deeper layers. This mechanism affects the upwelling of nutrient-rich water at the head of the Laurentian Channel in the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary, leading to a 22% reduction in the vertical nitrate flux in the future. Additionally, nutrient concentrations in the water masses entering the GSL at the Strait of Belle Isle and at Cabot Strait are also reduced. Due to declining sea-ice concentration, the phytoplankton bloom is expected to occur between 9 and 23 days earlier under a warmer climate, and last for up to 24 days longer, depending on the GSL subregions, compared to the historical period (2001-2020). Biological productivity at higher trophic levels, and thus fisheries productivity, could be negatively impacted under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1416744/fullclimate changeGulf of St. LawrenceEastern Scotian Shelfprimary productionnutrient supplyestuarine circulation |
| spellingShingle | Zhi-Ping Mei Diane Lavoie Nicolas Lambert Nicolas Lambert Michel Starr Joël Chassé William Perrie Zhenxia Long Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf Frontiers in Marine Science climate change Gulf of St. Lawrence Eastern Scotian Shelf primary production nutrient supply estuarine circulation |
| title | Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf |
| title_full | Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf |
| title_short | Modelling the bottom-up effects of climate change on primary production in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eastern Scotian Shelf |
| title_sort | modelling the bottom up effects of climate change on primary production in the gulf of st lawrence and eastern scotian shelf |
| topic | climate change Gulf of St. Lawrence Eastern Scotian Shelf primary production nutrient supply estuarine circulation |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1416744/full |
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