Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies

IntroductionThe transition to carbon-centric urban policies requires innovative strategies to reduce transportation-related emissions. One such strategy is to shift travelers from high-carbon to low-carbon modes of transportation, a potential that has not been thoroughly quantified in urban planning...

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Main Authors: Ran Peng, Keyuan Ding, Xueliang Liu, Keyu Yao, Xu Zhou, Wei Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-05-01
Series:Frontiers in Environmental Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1540620/full
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author Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Keyuan Ding
Keyuan Ding
Xueliang Liu
Xueliang Liu
Keyu Yao
Keyu Yao
Xu Zhou
Xu Zhou
Wei Zhang
Wei Zhang
author_facet Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Keyuan Ding
Keyuan Ding
Xueliang Liu
Xueliang Liu
Keyu Yao
Keyu Yao
Xu Zhou
Xu Zhou
Wei Zhang
Wei Zhang
author_sort Ran Peng
collection DOAJ
description IntroductionThe transition to carbon-centric urban policies requires innovative strategies to reduce transportation-related emissions. One such strategy is to shift travelers from high-carbon to low-carbon modes of transportation, a potential that has not been thoroughly quantified in urban planning frameworks.MethodsThis study introduces the concept of urban transportation carbon reduction potential, defined as the share of travelers who could feasibly switch to low-carbon modes under optimized public transit conditions. A dynamic evaluation model was developed, integrating key factors such as connection, detour, and transfer barriers that influence residents’ public transit adoption. The model was applied to cross-river travel in Wuhan, China, using 10,327 Origin-Destination (OD) survey data points collected between 2023 and 2024. Multiple optimization scenarios were simulated to assess responses to transit improvements.ResultsThe analysis revealed three distinct zones of carbon reduction potential: stable, unlocking, and re-stable. Particularly, the unlocking zone exhibited substantial carbon reduction effects when targeted public transit improvements were implemented. Key thresholds were identified where small enhancements in transit connectivity led to sharp increases in low-carbon travel adoption.DiscussionThis study presents a novel optimization model for urban transit planning, which explicitly incorporates natural environmental constraints and provides quantitative decision support for achieving SDG11 targets on sustainable cities and communities. It offers valuable insights for cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, aiding strategic investment in public transit to enhance low-carbon mobility.
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spelling doaj-art-fed9ed32886c43d5b3d8a04b4cc4ffda2025-08-20T02:15:24ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2025-05-011310.3389/fenvs.2025.15406201540620Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policiesRan Peng0Ran Peng1Ran Peng2Keyuan Ding3Keyuan Ding4Xueliang Liu5Xueliang Liu6Keyu Yao7Keyu Yao8Xu Zhou9Xu Zhou10Wei Zhang11Wei Zhang12School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan, ChinaHubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Green Civil Engineering Materials and Structures, Wuhan, ChinaIntroductionThe transition to carbon-centric urban policies requires innovative strategies to reduce transportation-related emissions. One such strategy is to shift travelers from high-carbon to low-carbon modes of transportation, a potential that has not been thoroughly quantified in urban planning frameworks.MethodsThis study introduces the concept of urban transportation carbon reduction potential, defined as the share of travelers who could feasibly switch to low-carbon modes under optimized public transit conditions. A dynamic evaluation model was developed, integrating key factors such as connection, detour, and transfer barriers that influence residents’ public transit adoption. The model was applied to cross-river travel in Wuhan, China, using 10,327 Origin-Destination (OD) survey data points collected between 2023 and 2024. Multiple optimization scenarios were simulated to assess responses to transit improvements.ResultsThe analysis revealed three distinct zones of carbon reduction potential: stable, unlocking, and re-stable. Particularly, the unlocking zone exhibited substantial carbon reduction effects when targeted public transit improvements were implemented. Key thresholds were identified where small enhancements in transit connectivity led to sharp increases in low-carbon travel adoption.DiscussionThis study presents a novel optimization model for urban transit planning, which explicitly incorporates natural environmental constraints and provides quantitative decision support for achieving SDG11 targets on sustainable cities and communities. It offers valuable insights for cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, aiding strategic investment in public transit to enhance low-carbon mobility.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1540620/fullurban transportation carbon reduction potentialcross-river transportationpolicy-driven carbon mitigationtravel behavior transformationenergy-efficient transportation systems
spellingShingle Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Ran Peng
Keyuan Ding
Keyuan Ding
Xueliang Liu
Xueliang Liu
Keyu Yao
Keyu Yao
Xu Zhou
Xu Zhou
Wei Zhang
Wei Zhang
Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
Frontiers in Environmental Science
urban transportation carbon reduction potential
cross-river transportation
policy-driven carbon mitigation
travel behavior transformation
energy-efficient transportation systems
title Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
title_full Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
title_fullStr Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
title_full_unstemmed Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
title_short Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies
title_sort unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon centric policies
topic urban transportation carbon reduction potential
cross-river transportation
policy-driven carbon mitigation
travel behavior transformation
energy-efficient transportation systems
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1540620/full
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