Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China
Abstract Particle-phase air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally and impacts climate by scattering or absorbing radiation and changing cloud properties. Within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, where there are severe air quality problems, several municipalities ha...
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Springer
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Aerosol and Air Quality Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2019.11.0565 |
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| author | Kelsey R. Bilsback Jill Baumgartner Michael Cheeseman Bonne Ford John K. Kodros Xiaoying Li Emily Ramnarine Shu Tao Yuanxun Zhang Ellison Carter Jeffrey R Pierce |
| author_facet | Kelsey R. Bilsback Jill Baumgartner Michael Cheeseman Bonne Ford John K. Kodros Xiaoying Li Emily Ramnarine Shu Tao Yuanxun Zhang Ellison Carter Jeffrey R Pierce |
| author_sort | Kelsey R. Bilsback |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Particle-phase air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally and impacts climate by scattering or absorbing radiation and changing cloud properties. Within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, where there are severe air quality problems, several municipalities have begun implementing a coal-to-electricity program that bans residential coal and provides subsidies for electricity and electric-powered heat pumps. We used GEOS-Chem to evaluate two complete residential coal-to-electricity transitions—a Beijing-off scenario and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario—each relative to a base case. We estimate that within China, the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) reductions in the Beijing-off scenario could lead to 1,900 (95% CI: 1,200−2,700) premature deaths avoided annually, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario could lead to 13,700 (95% CI: 8,900−19,600) premature deaths avoided annually. Additionally, we estimate that the residential-coal-ban scenarios will result in a positive top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) (model domain average: Beijing-off: 0.023 W m−2; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.30 W m−2) and a negligible cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) (Beijing-off: 0.0001 W m−2; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.0027 W m−2). To evaluate the uncertainty of the radiative effects, we calculated the DRE under four black-carbon mixing-state assumptions and both the DRE and AIE assuming three different black-carbon-to-organic-aerosol (BC:OA) ratios for residential-coal emissions. Although the magnitude of our radiative forcing estimates varied across sensitivity cases, the domain average remained positive. When only considering the aerosol-related effects of the aforementioned coal-ban scenarios, we predict substantial health benefits, but do not anticipate a climate “co-benefit”, because removing aerosol emissions leads to a warming tendency. However, if the coal-to-electricity program results in less net greenhouse gas emissions due to the replacement heaters, the policy may be able to achieve health and climate “co-benefits”. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fea8796bf051477c976f793078af7f2d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1680-8584 2071-1409 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerosol and Air Quality Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-fea8796bf051477c976f793078af7f2d2025-02-09T12:19:14ZengSpringerAerosol and Air Quality Research1680-85842071-14092020-09-0120112332234610.4209/aaqr.2019.11.0565Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of ChinaKelsey R. Bilsback0Jill Baumgartner1Michael Cheeseman2Bonne Ford3John K. Kodros4Xiaoying Li5Emily Ramnarine6Shu Tao7Yuanxun Zhang8Ellison Carter9Jeffrey R Pierce10Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityInstitute for Health and Social Policy, McGill UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityInstitute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, ICE/FORTHDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityLaboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State UniversityAbstract Particle-phase air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature death globally and impacts climate by scattering or absorbing radiation and changing cloud properties. Within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, where there are severe air quality problems, several municipalities have begun implementing a coal-to-electricity program that bans residential coal and provides subsidies for electricity and electric-powered heat pumps. We used GEOS-Chem to evaluate two complete residential coal-to-electricity transitions—a Beijing-off scenario and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario—each relative to a base case. We estimate that within China, the ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) reductions in the Beijing-off scenario could lead to 1,900 (95% CI: 1,200−2,700) premature deaths avoided annually, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off scenario could lead to 13,700 (95% CI: 8,900−19,600) premature deaths avoided annually. Additionally, we estimate that the residential-coal-ban scenarios will result in a positive top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) (model domain average: Beijing-off: 0.023 W m−2; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.30 W m−2) and a negligible cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) (Beijing-off: 0.0001 W m−2; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-off: 0.0027 W m−2). To evaluate the uncertainty of the radiative effects, we calculated the DRE under four black-carbon mixing-state assumptions and both the DRE and AIE assuming three different black-carbon-to-organic-aerosol (BC:OA) ratios for residential-coal emissions. Although the magnitude of our radiative forcing estimates varied across sensitivity cases, the domain average remained positive. When only considering the aerosol-related effects of the aforementioned coal-ban scenarios, we predict substantial health benefits, but do not anticipate a climate “co-benefit”, because removing aerosol emissions leads to a warming tendency. However, if the coal-to-electricity program results in less net greenhouse gas emissions due to the replacement heaters, the policy may be able to achieve health and climate “co-benefits”.https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2019.11.0565Air pollutionRadiative forcingPM2.5-related mortalityResidential emissions |
| spellingShingle | Kelsey R. Bilsback Jill Baumgartner Michael Cheeseman Bonne Ford John K. Kodros Xiaoying Li Emily Ramnarine Shu Tao Yuanxun Zhang Ellison Carter Jeffrey R Pierce Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China Aerosol and Air Quality Research Air pollution Radiative forcing PM2.5-related mortality Residential emissions |
| title | Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China |
| title_full | Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China |
| title_fullStr | Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China |
| title_short | Estimated Aerosol Health and Radiative Effects of the Residential Coal Ban in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China |
| title_sort | estimated aerosol health and radiative effects of the residential coal ban in the beijing tianjin hebei region of china |
| topic | Air pollution Radiative forcing PM2.5-related mortality Residential emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2019.11.0565 |
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