Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data
Abstract High‐frequency (HF) communication has played a critical role in various fields, including military communications, disaster response, and global broadcasting, due to its unique advantages, such as long‐range capability, no need for repeaters, low cost, and flexible deployment. The accurate...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004346 |
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| _version_ | 1849415821977190400 |
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| author | Zhigang Zhang Qiao Yu Jian Wang Xiuqiang Zhang Zhanfeng Zhu Lin Zhao Cheng Yang |
| author_facet | Zhigang Zhang Qiao Yu Jian Wang Xiuqiang Zhang Zhanfeng Zhu Lin Zhao Cheng Yang |
| author_sort | Zhigang Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract High‐frequency (HF) communication has played a critical role in various fields, including military communications, disaster response, and global broadcasting, due to its unique advantages, such as long‐range capability, no need for repeaters, low cost, and flexible deployment. The accurate forecast of the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) is one of the key technologies in HF communication, and it has been a widely discussed topic. To further improve the forecasting accuracy of the MUF model, a real‐time sounding‐based MUF forecast model is proposed. This model consists of four steps: (a) Obtaining the Maximum Observed Frequency based on the ionograms of the real‐time oblique sounding system. Then, calculating the corresponding foF2 at the midpoint of the oblique sounding circuit path using ray‐tracing theory; (b) Using the equal‐weighting method based on the data measured in the previous 7 days to forecast the foF2 for the following day; (c) Obtaining the foF2 at the unknown circuit midpoint using the kriging spatial interpolation method; (d) Calculating the MUF corresponding to the foF2 using the MINIMUF model. To verify the proposed method, an experiment has been finished utilizing ionospheric sounding data collected from Wuhan to eight other stations from April 23 to 20 May 2024. The result shows that the mean absolute errors (MAE) between the ITU, VOACAP models, and the proposed model are 3.23, 3.04, and 2.73 MHz, respectively, and the mean root mean square errors (RMSE) correspondingly are 3.87, 3.69, and 3.22 MHz. This study can provide technical support for real‐time frequency selection in HF communication. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fe63dbc838c74fcfa638312ceedbabb5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-fe63dbc838c74fcfa638312ceedbabb52025-08-20T03:33:25ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-06-01236n/an/a10.1029/2025SW004346Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding DataZhigang Zhang0Qiao Yu1Jian Wang2Xiuqiang Zhang3Zhanfeng Zhu4Lin Zhao5Cheng Yang6Department of Communication Engineering Naval University of Engineering Wuhan ChinaSchool of Microelectronics Tianjin University Tianjin ChinaSchool of Microelectronics Tianjin University Tianjin ChinaThe People′s Liberation Army Beijing ChinaSchool of Microelectronics Tianjin University Tianjin ChinaDepartment of Communication Engineering Naval University of Engineering Wuhan ChinaSchool of Microelectronics Tianjin University Tianjin ChinaAbstract High‐frequency (HF) communication has played a critical role in various fields, including military communications, disaster response, and global broadcasting, due to its unique advantages, such as long‐range capability, no need for repeaters, low cost, and flexible deployment. The accurate forecast of the Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) is one of the key technologies in HF communication, and it has been a widely discussed topic. To further improve the forecasting accuracy of the MUF model, a real‐time sounding‐based MUF forecast model is proposed. This model consists of four steps: (a) Obtaining the Maximum Observed Frequency based on the ionograms of the real‐time oblique sounding system. Then, calculating the corresponding foF2 at the midpoint of the oblique sounding circuit path using ray‐tracing theory; (b) Using the equal‐weighting method based on the data measured in the previous 7 days to forecast the foF2 for the following day; (c) Obtaining the foF2 at the unknown circuit midpoint using the kriging spatial interpolation method; (d) Calculating the MUF corresponding to the foF2 using the MINIMUF model. To verify the proposed method, an experiment has been finished utilizing ionospheric sounding data collected from Wuhan to eight other stations from April 23 to 20 May 2024. The result shows that the mean absolute errors (MAE) between the ITU, VOACAP models, and the proposed model are 3.23, 3.04, and 2.73 MHz, respectively, and the mean root mean square errors (RMSE) correspondingly are 3.87, 3.69, and 3.22 MHz. This study can provide technical support for real‐time frequency selection in HF communication.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004346 |
| spellingShingle | Zhigang Zhang Qiao Yu Jian Wang Xiuqiang Zhang Zhanfeng Zhu Lin Zhao Cheng Yang Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data Space Weather |
| title | Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data |
| title_full | Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data |
| title_fullStr | Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data |
| title_short | Maximum Usable Frequency Forecast Model Based on Real‐Time Oblique Sounding Data |
| title_sort | maximum usable frequency forecast model based on real time oblique sounding data |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025SW004346 |
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