Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand

<p>With mountainous topography and exposure to midlatitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydrohazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: D. G. Kingston, L. Cooper, D. A. Lavers, D. M. Hannah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2025-02-01
Series:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Online Access:https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/675/2025/nhess-25-675-2025.pdf
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Summary:<p>With mountainous topography and exposure to midlatitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydrohazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is applied to two variables in forecast week 2: total precipitation (TP–EFI) and vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT–EFI). Results reveal the TP–EFI sometimes outperforms the IVT–EFI in capturing extreme precipitation events – in contrast to past Europe-based research. Importantly, these case studies highlight the need to develop further understanding of sources of predictability for extreme precipitation in different geographical contexts.</p>
ISSN:1561-8633
1684-9981