Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
<p>With mountainous topography and exposure to midlatitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydrohazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extr...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/675/2025/nhess-25-675-2025.pdf |
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| Summary: | <p>With mountainous topography and exposure to midlatitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydrohazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is applied to two variables in forecast week 2: total precipitation (TP–EFI) and vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT–EFI). Results reveal the TP–EFI sometimes outperforms the IVT–EFI in capturing extreme precipitation events – in contrast to past Europe-based research. Importantly, these case studies highlight the need to develop further understanding of sources of predictability for extreme precipitation in different geographical contexts.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |