Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions

The prediction and modeling of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) have consistently been a focal point for researchers, as it holds significant implications for satellite positioning, navigation, telemetry, control, and radio wave propagation. In this context, we propose a machine learning pre...

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Main Authors: Qingfeng Li, Hanxian Fang, Chao Xiao, Die Duan, Hongtao Huang, Ganming Ren
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing
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Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11020806/
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author Qingfeng Li
Hanxian Fang
Chao Xiao
Die Duan
Hongtao Huang
Ganming Ren
author_facet Qingfeng Li
Hanxian Fang
Chao Xiao
Die Duan
Hongtao Huang
Ganming Ren
author_sort Qingfeng Li
collection DOAJ
description The prediction and modeling of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) have consistently been a focal point for researchers, as it holds significant implications for satellite positioning, navigation, telemetry, control, and radio wave propagation. In this context, we propose a machine learning prediction model [predictive GAN variational autoencoder-label (PGVAE-label)] using a labeled graph of image segmentation as a constraint to predict the global ionospheric TEC. We use IGS TEC maps from 2003 to 2018 as training, test, and validation sets, respectively. Subsequently, we conducted comparative experiments using the unlabeled machine learning prediction model (PGVAE) and the one-day and two-day forecast maps published by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). In addition, the article analyzes the effect of predictions during the periods of geomagnetic quiet and disturbance, high solar activity years, and low solar activity years. The results show that the PGVAE-label model has superior TEC prediction capability, producing TEC prediction maps with the lowest average root-mean-square error values of 1.79, 1.80, and 1.83 TECU, and that the PGVAE-label model is also superior to the PGVAE and CODE models in the region of the peak ionospheric structure. The predictive ability of the PGVAE-label model is better in geomagnetically quiet periods than in geomagnetically disturbed periods, and better in solar low years than in solar high years. The work in this article provides new ideas and thoughts on the application of deep learning to the broader field of Earth sciences, particularly in the problem of prediction.
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spelling doaj-art-fe48a9c53a88456b8ab993e76bf3566a2025-08-20T02:07:23ZengIEEEIEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing1939-14042151-15352025-01-0118144541446610.1109/JSTARS.2025.357569311020806Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint ConditionsQingfeng Li0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3700-9781Hanxian Fang1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9866-2293Chao Xiao2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2633-9526Die Duan3Hongtao Huang4Ganming Ren5College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaCollege of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, ChinaThe prediction and modeling of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) have consistently been a focal point for researchers, as it holds significant implications for satellite positioning, navigation, telemetry, control, and radio wave propagation. In this context, we propose a machine learning prediction model [predictive GAN variational autoencoder-label (PGVAE-label)] using a labeled graph of image segmentation as a constraint to predict the global ionospheric TEC. We use IGS TEC maps from 2003 to 2018 as training, test, and validation sets, respectively. Subsequently, we conducted comparative experiments using the unlabeled machine learning prediction model (PGVAE) and the one-day and two-day forecast maps published by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). In addition, the article analyzes the effect of predictions during the periods of geomagnetic quiet and disturbance, high solar activity years, and low solar activity years. The results show that the PGVAE-label model has superior TEC prediction capability, producing TEC prediction maps with the lowest average root-mean-square error values of 1.79, 1.80, and 1.83 TECU, and that the PGVAE-label model is also superior to the PGVAE and CODE models in the region of the peak ionospheric structure. The predictive ability of the PGVAE-label model is better in geomagnetically quiet periods than in geomagnetically disturbed periods, and better in solar low years than in solar high years. The work in this article provides new ideas and thoughts on the application of deep learning to the broader field of Earth sciences, particularly in the problem of prediction.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11020806/Deep learningforecastingglobal ionospheric map (GIM)ionospheretotal electron content (TEC)
spellingShingle Qingfeng Li
Hanxian Fang
Chao Xiao
Die Duan
Hongtao Huang
Ganming Ren
Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing
Deep learning
forecasting
global ionospheric map (GIM)
ionosphere
total electron content (TEC)
title Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
title_full Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
title_fullStr Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
title_full_unstemmed Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
title_short Machine Learning Model for Predicting Global Ionospheric TEC Maps Based on Constraint Conditions
title_sort machine learning model for predicting global ionospheric tec maps based on constraint conditions
topic Deep learning
forecasting
global ionospheric map (GIM)
ionosphere
total electron content (TEC)
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11020806/
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AT dieduan machinelearningmodelforpredictingglobalionospherictecmapsbasedonconstraintconditions
AT hongtaohuang machinelearningmodelforpredictingglobalionospherictecmapsbasedonconstraintconditions
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