Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, requiring advanced analytical methods for accurate price forecasting. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Double Moving Average (DMA) in predicting USDT (Tether Coin) prices using historical data from 2017 to 2024, s...
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LPPM ISB Atma Luhur
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://jurnal.atmaluhur.ac.id/index.php/sisfokom/article/view/2328 |
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| author | RAHMAT Munirul ula Zara Yunizar |
| author_facet | RAHMAT Munirul ula Zara Yunizar |
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| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, requiring advanced analytical methods for accurate price forecasting. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Double Moving Average (DMA) in predicting USDT (Tether Coin) prices using historical data from 2017 to 2024, sourced from Investing.com. Implemented in Jupyter Notebook, the research explores the strengths of each method in analyzing market fluctuations and price trends. GRU, a deep learning-based recurrent neural network, processes sequential data using a gating mechanism, making it effective for capturing short-term price dynamics. DMA, in contrast, is a statistical method that filters market noise to identify long-term trends, making it more reliable for stable market conditions. Performance evaluation shows DMA achieving lower errors (MAE: 5.494, MAPE: 0.0339%) than GRU (MAE: 5.984, MAPE: 0.0369%), suggesting higher accuracy for trend-based predictions. However, GRU’s lower RMSE (8.531 vs. 8.715 for DMA) indicates better adaptability to sudden price fluctuations, making it more responsive to volatile markets. A hybrid approach combining GRU and DMA reveals their complementary strengths—DMA’s minimal bias (-0.0013% MPE) supports stable trend analysis, while GRU’s slight positive bias (0.0286% MPE) captures short-term fluctuations. Additionally, a comparison with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) demonstrates its superior predictive accuracy, outperforming both GRU (MAE: 5.98, RMSE: 8.53) and DMA (MAE: 5.49, RMSE: 8.72) with the lowest MAE (4.31), MAPE (0.027%), and RMSE (5.64), alongside minimal bias (MPE: 0.007%). This study highlights the need for integrating multiple forecasting techniques in cryptocurrency price prediction. While DMA is well-suited for stable trends and GRU excels in volatile conditions, LSTM outperforms both, reinforcing the effectiveness of deep learning for financial time-series forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fe404cb88d684ec3b75d499a825d1f79 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2301-7988 2581-0588 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | LPPM ISB Atma Luhur |
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| series | Jurnal Sisfokom |
| spelling | doaj-art-fe404cb88d684ec3b75d499a825d1f792025-02-12T07:27:38ZengLPPM ISB Atma LuhurJurnal Sisfokom2301-79882581-05882025-01-0114110711310.32736/sisfokom.v14i1.23281991Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024RAHMAT0Munirul ula1Zara Yunizar2Dept. of Informatics Engineering, Universitas Malikussaleh, Lhokseumawe, IndonesiaDept. of Informatics Engineering, Universitas Malikussaleh, Lhokseumawe, IndonesiaDept. of Informatics Engineering, Universitas Malikussaleh, Lhokseumawe, IndonesiaThe cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, requiring advanced analytical methods for accurate price forecasting. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Double Moving Average (DMA) in predicting USDT (Tether Coin) prices using historical data from 2017 to 2024, sourced from Investing.com. Implemented in Jupyter Notebook, the research explores the strengths of each method in analyzing market fluctuations and price trends. GRU, a deep learning-based recurrent neural network, processes sequential data using a gating mechanism, making it effective for capturing short-term price dynamics. DMA, in contrast, is a statistical method that filters market noise to identify long-term trends, making it more reliable for stable market conditions. Performance evaluation shows DMA achieving lower errors (MAE: 5.494, MAPE: 0.0339%) than GRU (MAE: 5.984, MAPE: 0.0369%), suggesting higher accuracy for trend-based predictions. However, GRU’s lower RMSE (8.531 vs. 8.715 for DMA) indicates better adaptability to sudden price fluctuations, making it more responsive to volatile markets. A hybrid approach combining GRU and DMA reveals their complementary strengths—DMA’s minimal bias (-0.0013% MPE) supports stable trend analysis, while GRU’s slight positive bias (0.0286% MPE) captures short-term fluctuations. Additionally, a comparison with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) demonstrates its superior predictive accuracy, outperforming both GRU (MAE: 5.98, RMSE: 8.53) and DMA (MAE: 5.49, RMSE: 8.72) with the lowest MAE (4.31), MAPE (0.027%), and RMSE (5.64), alongside minimal bias (MPE: 0.007%). This study highlights the need for integrating multiple forecasting techniques in cryptocurrency price prediction. While DMA is well-suited for stable trends and GRU excels in volatile conditions, LSTM outperforms both, reinforcing the effectiveness of deep learning for financial time-series forecasting.https://jurnal.atmaluhur.ac.id/index.php/sisfokom/article/view/2328cryptocurrencyforecastinghistorical datajupyter notebook |
| spellingShingle | RAHMAT Munirul ula Zara Yunizar Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 Jurnal Sisfokom cryptocurrency forecasting historical data jupyter notebook |
| title | Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 |
| title_full | Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 |
| title_short | Evaluating GRU Algorithm and Double Moving Average for Predicting USDT Prices: A Case Study 2017-2024 |
| title_sort | evaluating gru algorithm and double moving average for predicting usdt prices a case study 2017 2024 |
| topic | cryptocurrency forecasting historical data jupyter notebook |
| url | https://jurnal.atmaluhur.ac.id/index.php/sisfokom/article/view/2328 |
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