Singular-spectral climate models
In this paper, the singular spectrum analysis method is used to construct data models for the Onega Lake basin: time series of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff of the Shuya, Suna, and Vodla rivers. The model is represented by a trend, seasonality, and noise formed from the components of th...
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EDP Sciences
2025-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Online Access: | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2025/23/e3sconf_aees2025_01019.pdf |
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| author | Belashev Boris |
| author_facet | Belashev Boris |
| author_sort | Belashev Boris |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, the singular spectrum analysis method is used to construct data models for the Onega Lake basin: time series of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff of the Shuya, Suna, and Vodla rivers. The model is represented by a trend, seasonality, and noise formed from the components of the singular decomposition of a special matrix of the time series of data. The model is used to describe the variability of the time series variability, reconstruct gaps, and perform a forecast. Models with different numbers of noise components included in the seasonal component are analyzed. It is shown that stable estimates are provided by a model composed of components with large eigenvaIues is proposed to consider the estimates of such a model as local climate data and compare them with the results of global climate modeling. Modeling has confirmed typical regimes of air temperature and runoff fluctuations in the main rivers of the Onega Lake basin. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fe22a77f9f794437b8d244e6f4806b2e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj-art-fe22a77f9f794437b8d244e6f4806b2e2025-08-20T02:09:34ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422025-01-016230101910.1051/e3sconf/202562301019e3sconf_aees2025_01019Singular-spectral climate modelsBelashev Boris0Karelian research Center of Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of GeologyIn this paper, the singular spectrum analysis method is used to construct data models for the Onega Lake basin: time series of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff of the Shuya, Suna, and Vodla rivers. The model is represented by a trend, seasonality, and noise formed from the components of the singular decomposition of a special matrix of the time series of data. The model is used to describe the variability of the time series variability, reconstruct gaps, and perform a forecast. Models with different numbers of noise components included in the seasonal component are analyzed. It is shown that stable estimates are provided by a model composed of components with large eigenvaIues is proposed to consider the estimates of such a model as local climate data and compare them with the results of global climate modeling. Modeling has confirmed typical regimes of air temperature and runoff fluctuations in the main rivers of the Onega Lake basin.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2025/23/e3sconf_aees2025_01019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Belashev Boris Singular-spectral climate models E3S Web of Conferences |
| title | Singular-spectral climate models |
| title_full | Singular-spectral climate models |
| title_fullStr | Singular-spectral climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Singular-spectral climate models |
| title_short | Singular-spectral climate models |
| title_sort | singular spectral climate models |
| url | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2025/23/e3sconf_aees2025_01019.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT belashevboris singularspectralclimatemodels |