A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada
<b>Background/Objectives</b>: COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on endemic respiratory illnesses. Through behavioral changes in populations and government policy, mainly through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), Canada saw historic lows in the number of influenza A cases...
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/17/3/59 |
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| author | Heather MacTavish Kenzie MacIntyre Paniz Zadeh Matthew Betti |
| author_facet | Heather MacTavish Kenzie MacIntyre Paniz Zadeh Matthew Betti |
| author_sort | Heather MacTavish |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Background/Objectives</b>: COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on endemic respiratory illnesses. Through behavioral changes in populations and government policy, mainly through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), Canada saw historic lows in the number of influenza A cases from 2020 through 2022. In this study, we use historical influenza A data for Canada and three provincial jurisdictions within Canada—Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta—to quantify the effects of these NPIs on influenza A. <b>Methods</b>: We aim to see which base parameters and derived parameters of an SIR model are most affected by NPIs. We fit a simple SIR model to historical influenza data to get average paramters for seasonal influenza. We then compare these parameters to those predicted by fitting influenza cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. <b>Results</b>: We find substantial differences in the effective population size and basic reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also see the effects of fatigue and relaxation of NPIs when comparing the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. <b>Conclusions</b>: We find that the effective population size is the main driver of change to disease spread and discuss how these retrospective estimates can be used for future forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fe16124f6f0b4a7e8ecdf30f3f9bbd04 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2036-7449 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-fe16124f6f0b4a7e8ecdf30f3f9bbd042025-08-20T03:27:07ZengMDPI AGInfectious Disease Reports2036-74492025-05-011735910.3390/idr17030059A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in CanadaHeather MacTavish0Kenzie MacIntyre1Paniz Zadeh2Matthew Betti3Department of Biology, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB E4L 1E2, CanadaDepartment of Math & Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB E4L 1E2, CanadaDepartment of Math & Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB E4L 1E2, CanadaDepartment of Math & Computer Science, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB E4L 1E2, Canada<b>Background/Objectives</b>: COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on endemic respiratory illnesses. Through behavioral changes in populations and government policy, mainly through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), Canada saw historic lows in the number of influenza A cases from 2020 through 2022. In this study, we use historical influenza A data for Canada and three provincial jurisdictions within Canada—Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta—to quantify the effects of these NPIs on influenza A. <b>Methods</b>: We aim to see which base parameters and derived parameters of an SIR model are most affected by NPIs. We fit a simple SIR model to historical influenza data to get average paramters for seasonal influenza. We then compare these parameters to those predicted by fitting influenza cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. <b>Results</b>: We find substantial differences in the effective population size and basic reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also see the effects of fatigue and relaxation of NPIs when comparing the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. <b>Conclusions</b>: We find that the effective population size is the main driver of change to disease spread and discuss how these retrospective estimates can be used for future forecasting.https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/17/3/59influenzaCOVID-19non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| spellingShingle | Heather MacTavish Kenzie MacIntyre Paniz Zadeh Matthew Betti A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada Infectious Disease Reports influenza COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| title | A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada |
| title_full | A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada |
| title_fullStr | A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada |
| title_short | A Retrospective Study of the Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza in Canada |
| title_sort | retrospective study of the effects of covid 19 non pharmaceutical interventions on influenza in canada |
| topic | influenza COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2036-7449/17/3/59 |
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