Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis
Aim. The present study was aimed at comparing serum markers and APACHE-II score to predict persistent organ failure (POF) in early acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. In this retrospective study, data from 6024 patients with AP were included within 24 h of their admission. Serum levels of urea nitroge...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8201096 |
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| author | Jianhua Wan Wenqing Shu Wenhua He Yin Zhu Yong Zhu Hao Zeng Pi Liu Liang Xia Nonghua Lu |
| author_facet | Jianhua Wan Wenqing Shu Wenhua He Yin Zhu Yong Zhu Hao Zeng Pi Liu Liang Xia Nonghua Lu |
| author_sort | Jianhua Wan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Aim. The present study was aimed at comparing serum markers and APACHE-II score to predict persistent organ failure (POF) in early acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. In this retrospective study, data from 6024 patients with AP were included within 24 h of their admission. Serum levels of urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, glucose, and hematocrit and APACHE-II score were analyzed for patients with AP. We employed the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity analyses to evaluate the accuracy of the studied laboratory parameters and APACHE-II score. Results. Our study included 2090 (35%) patients out of 6024 patients who were evaluated within 24 h of hospital admission. For predicting POF, serum creatinine level≥1.8 mg/dl had the highest specificity (98%). The second classification tree has shown that when the serum creatinine level>1.8 and APACHE−II≥8 within 24 h were combined, the rates of predicted persistent organ failure achieved 66.7%. Conclusions. In this large, hospital-based retrospective study, we demonstrated that an APACHE-II score≥8 and a serum creatinine level≥1.8 mg/dl within 24 h of admission can positively predict POF in AP and that serum creatinine levels<1.8 mg/dl within 24 h of admission can be useful for negatively predicting POF in AP. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fd89d043e1b44da6920275c857a5e488 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-6121 1687-630X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-fd89d043e1b44da6920275c857a5e4882025-02-03T05:50:10ZengWileyGastroenterology Research and Practice1687-61211687-630X2019-01-01201910.1155/2019/82010968201096Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute PancreatitisJianhua Wan0Wenqing Shu1Wenhua He2Yin Zhu3Yong Zhu4Hao Zeng5Pi Liu6Liang Xia7Nonghua Lu8Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, ChinaAim. The present study was aimed at comparing serum markers and APACHE-II score to predict persistent organ failure (POF) in early acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. In this retrospective study, data from 6024 patients with AP were included within 24 h of their admission. Serum levels of urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, glucose, and hematocrit and APACHE-II score were analyzed for patients with AP. We employed the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity analyses to evaluate the accuracy of the studied laboratory parameters and APACHE-II score. Results. Our study included 2090 (35%) patients out of 6024 patients who were evaluated within 24 h of hospital admission. For predicting POF, serum creatinine level≥1.8 mg/dl had the highest specificity (98%). The second classification tree has shown that when the serum creatinine level>1.8 and APACHE−II≥8 within 24 h were combined, the rates of predicted persistent organ failure achieved 66.7%. Conclusions. In this large, hospital-based retrospective study, we demonstrated that an APACHE-II score≥8 and a serum creatinine level≥1.8 mg/dl within 24 h of admission can positively predict POF in AP and that serum creatinine levels<1.8 mg/dl within 24 h of admission can be useful for negatively predicting POF in AP.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8201096 |
| spellingShingle | Jianhua Wan Wenqing Shu Wenhua He Yin Zhu Yong Zhu Hao Zeng Pi Liu Liang Xia Nonghua Lu Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Gastroenterology Research and Practice |
| title | Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full | Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_fullStr | Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_short | Serum Creatinine Level and APACHE-II Score within 24 h of Admission Are Effective for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis |
| title_sort | serum creatinine level and apache ii score within 24 h of admission are effective for predicting persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8201096 |
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