Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology
<p>Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inv...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/1037/2025/nhess-25-1037-2025.pdf |
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| author | J. Perkins N. S. Oakley N. S. Oakley B. D. Collins S. C. Corbett W. P. Burgess |
| author_facet | J. Perkins N. S. Oakley N. S. Oakley B. D. Collins S. C. Corbett W. P. Burgess |
| author_sort | J. Perkins |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span>, based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span> using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span>, along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fd446cb0bcd040dda808392c56be5d66 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-fd446cb0bcd040dda808392c56be5d662025-08-20T02:58:44ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-03-01251037105610.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorologyJ. Perkins0N. S. Oakley1N. S. Oakley2B. D. Collins3S. C. Corbett4W. P. Burgess5US Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USACenter for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA 92037, USACalifornia Geological Survey, Santa Rosa, CA 95405, USAUS Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USAUS Geological Survey, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USACalifornia Geological Survey, Los Angeles, CA 90013, USA<p>Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span>, based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span> using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of <span class="inline-formula"><i>A</i><sup>*</sup></span>, along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/1037/2025/nhess-25-1037-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Perkins N. S. Oakley N. S. Oakley B. D. Collins S. C. Corbett W. P. Burgess Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| title_full | Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| title_fullStr | Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| title_short | Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| title_sort | characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/1037/2025/nhess-25-1037-2025.pdf |
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