Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events

Background: Wearable fitness trackers generate extensive physiological and activity data, offering potential to monitor health and predict outcomes. Machine learning (ML) techniques applied to these data may enable early identification of adverse health conditions, such as hospitalizations and devel...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: John Kundrick, Aditi Naniwadekar, Virginia Singla, Krishna Kancharla, Aditya Bhonsale, Andrew Voigt, Alaa Shalaby, N.A. Mark Estes, Sandeep K Jain, Samir Saba
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:American Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666667725000819
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850151674264420352
author John Kundrick
Aditi Naniwadekar
Virginia Singla
Krishna Kancharla
Aditya Bhonsale
Andrew Voigt
Alaa Shalaby
N.A. Mark Estes
Sandeep K Jain
Samir Saba
author_facet John Kundrick
Aditi Naniwadekar
Virginia Singla
Krishna Kancharla
Aditya Bhonsale
Andrew Voigt
Alaa Shalaby
N.A. Mark Estes
Sandeep K Jain
Samir Saba
author_sort John Kundrick
collection DOAJ
description Background: Wearable fitness trackers generate extensive physiological and activity data, offering potential to monitor health and predict outcomes. Machine learning (ML) techniques applied to these data may enable early identification of adverse health conditions, such as hospitalizations and development of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aimed to evaluate ML models' ability to forecast the incidence of (1) hospitalizations from any cause and (2) of new diagnosis of CVD, including a composite of heart failure (HF), coronary artery disease or myocardial infarction (CAD-MI), cardiomyopathy (CMP), and atrial fibrillation (AF). Method and Results: Data from 14,157 participants in the All of Us study that included both Fitbit and electronic health record (EHR) information were censored on the date preceding events and analyzed using various ML classifiers for extracted feature data. Performance metrics included accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and F1 scores. Our overall study population was young (median age 54 years), with good representation of women (67%). For hospitalizations, a Random Forest classifier achieved the best performance (AUROC=0.95, accuracy=0.99, F1 score=0.92). For the CVD events, the best prediction model was gradient boosting (AUROC=0.80, accuracy=0.71, F1 score=0.15).Conclusion: ML models applied to Fitbit data demonstrate promise in predicting clinical outcomes with strong performance for predicting all-cause hospitalizations and modest performance for predicting incident CVD. Wearable technology could play a role in risk assessment and patient management.
format Article
id doaj-art-fd2410410ec64d39badcb5f7bed12b09
institution OA Journals
issn 2666-6677
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series American Journal of Preventive Cardiology
spelling doaj-art-fd2410410ec64d39badcb5f7bed12b092025-08-20T02:26:09ZengElsevierAmerican Journal of Preventive Cardiology2666-66772025-06-012210100610.1016/j.ajpc.2025.101006Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular eventsJohn Kundrick0Aditi Naniwadekar1Virginia Singla2Krishna Kancharla3Aditya Bhonsale4Andrew Voigt5Alaa Shalaby6N.A. Mark Estes7Sandeep K Jain8Samir Saba9Heart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesHeart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesCorresponding author at: Division Chief, Cardiology, Co-Director, Heart and Vascular Institute, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, 200 Lothrop Street, South Tower E355.6, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States.; Heart and Vascular Institute, Division of Cardiology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA, United StatesBackground: Wearable fitness trackers generate extensive physiological and activity data, offering potential to monitor health and predict outcomes. Machine learning (ML) techniques applied to these data may enable early identification of adverse health conditions, such as hospitalizations and development of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aimed to evaluate ML models' ability to forecast the incidence of (1) hospitalizations from any cause and (2) of new diagnosis of CVD, including a composite of heart failure (HF), coronary artery disease or myocardial infarction (CAD-MI), cardiomyopathy (CMP), and atrial fibrillation (AF). Method and Results: Data from 14,157 participants in the All of Us study that included both Fitbit and electronic health record (EHR) information were censored on the date preceding events and analyzed using various ML classifiers for extracted feature data. Performance metrics included accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and F1 scores. Our overall study population was young (median age 54 years), with good representation of women (67%). For hospitalizations, a Random Forest classifier achieved the best performance (AUROC=0.95, accuracy=0.99, F1 score=0.92). For the CVD events, the best prediction model was gradient boosting (AUROC=0.80, accuracy=0.71, F1 score=0.15).Conclusion: ML models applied to Fitbit data demonstrate promise in predicting clinical outcomes with strong performance for predicting all-cause hospitalizations and modest performance for predicting incident CVD. Wearable technology could play a role in risk assessment and patient management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666667725000819Heart rateStep countHospitalizationCardiovascular diseasePrediction
spellingShingle John Kundrick
Aditi Naniwadekar
Virginia Singla
Krishna Kancharla
Aditya Bhonsale
Andrew Voigt
Alaa Shalaby
N.A. Mark Estes
Sandeep K Jain
Samir Saba
Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
American Journal of Preventive Cardiology
Heart rate
Step count
Hospitalization
Cardiovascular disease
Prediction
title Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
title_full Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
title_fullStr Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
title_full_unstemmed Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
title_short Machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
title_sort machine learning applied to wearable fitness tracker data and the risk of hospitalizations and cardiovascular events
topic Heart rate
Step count
Hospitalization
Cardiovascular disease
Prediction
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666667725000819
work_keys_str_mv AT johnkundrick machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT aditinaniwadekar machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT virginiasingla machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT krishnakancharla machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT adityabhonsale machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT andrewvoigt machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT alaashalaby machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT namarkestes machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT sandeepkjain machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents
AT samirsaba machinelearningappliedtowearablefitnesstrackerdataandtheriskofhospitalizationsandcardiovascularevents