Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database

Objective: This study aims to analyse the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in China and other G20 countries from 1990–2021 and predict the burden for the next decade. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we evaluated the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incid...

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Main Authors: Yi Zhang, Hui Li, JingHan Chu, ShuaiShuai Ye, Chun Xiao, BuChun Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Ubiquity Press 2025-04-01
Series:Global Heart
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Online Access:https://account.globalheartjournal.com/index.php/up-j-gh/article/view/1424
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author Yi Zhang
Hui Li
JingHan Chu
ShuaiShuai Ye
Chun Xiao
BuChun Zhang
author_facet Yi Zhang
Hui Li
JingHan Chu
ShuaiShuai Ye
Chun Xiao
BuChun Zhang
author_sort Yi Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Objective: This study aims to analyse the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in China and other G20 countries from 1990–2021 and predict the burden for the next decade. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we evaluated the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the incidence, mortality and DALY rates of IHD in China from 2021–2040. Results: The ASRs of incidence, mortality and DALYs of IHD in China increased with EAPCs of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.82), 0.97 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.31) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.78), respectively. Compared with other G20 countries, China was ranked 14th for the ASR of incidence in 1990 and then rose to 7th in 2021. The ASR of prevalence for IHD in China jumped from 8th in 1990 to 5th in 2021, and both the ASR of mortality and DALYs for IHD in China ranked 7th in 2021. The top five risk factors affecting mortality in China in 2021 were high systolic blood pressure, dietary risk, air pollution, high LDL cholesterol and tobacco. Over the next 20 years, the ASR of incidence, mortality and DALYs for IHD will increase continuously in males. Conclusion: The burden of IHD is expected to increase steadily in China, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies, particularly focusing on the elderly and male populations.
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spelling doaj-art-fd1bfa36c5104484af0e148ecac45a5f2025-08-20T02:33:11ZengUbiquity PressGlobal Heart2211-81792025-04-01201373710.5334/gh.14241405Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease DatabaseYi Zhang0https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0404-0464Hui Li1https://orcid.org/0009-0001-6153-4095JingHan Chu2https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7964-1347ShuaiShuai Ye3https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4323-0326Chun Xiao4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7732-0449BuChun Zhang5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3528-0730Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui Hefei, 230001; Graduate School, Wannan Medical College, Anhui Wuhu, 241002Graduate School, Wannan Medical College, Anhui Wuhu, 241002School of Medical Technology, Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin 301617Graduate School, Wannan Medical College, Anhui Wuhu, 241002Department of Cardiology, Third People’s Hospital of Huizhou, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangdong 516002Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui Hefei, 230001Objective: This study aims to analyse the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in China and other G20 countries from 1990–2021 and predict the burden for the next decade. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we evaluated the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast the incidence, mortality and DALY rates of IHD in China from 2021–2040. Results: The ASRs of incidence, mortality and DALYs of IHD in China increased with EAPCs of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.82), 0.97 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.31) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.24, 0.78), respectively. Compared with other G20 countries, China was ranked 14th for the ASR of incidence in 1990 and then rose to 7th in 2021. The ASR of prevalence for IHD in China jumped from 8th in 1990 to 5th in 2021, and both the ASR of mortality and DALYs for IHD in China ranked 7th in 2021. The top five risk factors affecting mortality in China in 2021 were high systolic blood pressure, dietary risk, air pollution, high LDL cholesterol and tobacco. Over the next 20 years, the ASR of incidence, mortality and DALYs for IHD will increase continuously in males. Conclusion: The burden of IHD is expected to increase steadily in China, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies, particularly focusing on the elderly and male populations.https://account.globalheartjournal.com/index.php/up-j-gh/article/view/1424ischemic heart diseaseglobal burden of diseaserisk factortemporal trends
spellingShingle Yi Zhang
Hui Li
JingHan Chu
ShuaiShuai Ye
Chun Xiao
BuChun Zhang
Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
Global Heart
ischemic heart disease
global burden of disease
risk factor
temporal trends
title Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
title_full Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
title_fullStr Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
title_full_unstemmed Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
title_short Trends and Projections of Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China Versus Other G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Database
title_sort trends and projections of burden of ischemic heart disease in china versus other g20 countries a comparative study based on the 2021 global burden of disease database
topic ischemic heart disease
global burden of disease
risk factor
temporal trends
url https://account.globalheartjournal.com/index.php/up-j-gh/article/view/1424
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