Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases

Abstract Background Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer‐specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients. Methods Data...

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Main Authors: Yongxin Li, Xinlong Tao, Yinyin Ye, Yuyao Tang, Zhengbo Xu, Yaming Tian, Zhen Liu, Jiuda Zhao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-12-01
Series:Cancer Innovation
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/cai2.152
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author Yongxin Li
Xinlong Tao
Yinyin Ye
Yuyao Tang
Zhengbo Xu
Yaming Tian
Zhen Liu
Jiuda Zhao
author_facet Yongxin Li
Xinlong Tao
Yinyin Ye
Yuyao Tang
Zhengbo Xu
Yaming Tian
Zhen Liu
Jiuda Zhao
author_sort Yongxin Li
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer‐specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients. Methods Data of women diagnosed with YBC between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort (n = 15,227) and internal validation cohort (n = 6,526) at a 7:3 ratio. With the Cox regression models, significant prognostic factors were identified and used to construct 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐year nomograms of OS and BCSS. Data from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) database were used as an external validation cohort (n = 90). Results We constructed nomograms incorporating 10 prognostic factors for OS and BCSS. These nomograms demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for OS and BCSS in the training cohort, with C‐indexes of 0.806 and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curves verified that the nomograms have good prediction accuracy. Decision curve analysis demonstrated their practical clinical value for predicting YBC patient survival rates. Additionally, we provided dynamic nomograms to improve the operability of the results. The risk stratification ability assessment also showed that the OS and BCSS rates of the low‐risk group were significantly better than those of the high‐risk group. Conclusions Here, we generated and validated more comprehensive and accurate OS and BCSS nomograms than models previously developed for YBC. These nomograms can help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and make clinical decisions.
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spelling doaj-art-fb6b3c9bddbd4205a17a440efbe32a6c2025-08-20T02:49:49ZengWileyCancer Innovation2770-91912770-91832024-12-0136n/an/a10.1002/cai2.152Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databasesYongxin Li0Xinlong Tao1Yinyin Ye2Yuyao Tang3Zhengbo Xu4Yaming Tian5Zhen Liu6Jiuda Zhao7Breast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaBreast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaBreast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaBreast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaQinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaDepartment of Imaging Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaBreast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaBreast Disease Diagnosis and Treatment Center of Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University & Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Qinghai University Xining Qinghai ChinaAbstract Background Young breast cancer (YBC) is a subset of breast cancer that is often more aggressive, but less is known about its prognosis. In this study, we aimed to generate nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and breast cancer‐specific survival (BCSS) of YBC patients. Methods Data of women diagnosed with YBC between 2010 and 2020 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort (n = 15,227) and internal validation cohort (n = 6,526) at a 7:3 ratio. With the Cox regression models, significant prognostic factors were identified and used to construct 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐year nomograms of OS and BCSS. Data from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) database were used as an external validation cohort (n = 90). Results We constructed nomograms incorporating 10 prognostic factors for OS and BCSS. These nomograms demonstrated strong predictive accuracy for OS and BCSS in the training cohort, with C‐indexes of 0.806 and 0.813, respectively. The calibration curves verified that the nomograms have good prediction accuracy. Decision curve analysis demonstrated their practical clinical value for predicting YBC patient survival rates. Additionally, we provided dynamic nomograms to improve the operability of the results. The risk stratification ability assessment also showed that the OS and BCSS rates of the low‐risk group were significantly better than those of the high‐risk group. Conclusions Here, we generated and validated more comprehensive and accurate OS and BCSS nomograms than models previously developed for YBC. These nomograms can help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and make clinical decisions.https://doi.org/10.1002/cai2.152breast cancer‐specific survivalnomogramoverall survivalprognostic modelyoung breast cancer
spellingShingle Yongxin Li
Xinlong Tao
Yinyin Ye
Yuyao Tang
Zhengbo Xu
Yaming Tian
Zhen Liu
Jiuda Zhao
Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
Cancer Innovation
breast cancer‐specific survival
nomogram
overall survival
prognostic model
young breast cancer
title Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
title_full Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
title_fullStr Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
title_full_unstemmed Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
title_short Prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer: A retrospective study based on the SEER and METABRIC databases
title_sort prognostic nomograms for young breast cancer a retrospective study based on the seer and metabric databases
topic breast cancer‐specific survival
nomogram
overall survival
prognostic model
young breast cancer
url https://doi.org/10.1002/cai2.152
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