Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England

Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England

Abstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse e...

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Main Authors: Pablo N. Perez-Guzman, Edward Knock, Natsuko Imai, Thomas Rawson, Cosmo Nazzareno Santoni, Joana Alcada, Lilith K. Whittles, Divya Thekke Kanapram, Raphael Sonabend, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Wes Hinsley, Richard G. FitzJohn, Erik Volz, Robert Verity, Neil M. Ferguson, Anne Cori, Marc Baguelin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023-07-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5
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Summary:Abstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.4 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.8-9.1). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (3.0%, 95% CrI 2.8-3.2), followed by Delta (2.1%, 95% CrI 1.9–2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1–1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.
ISSN:2041-1723

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