Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region
Precipitation is the most relevant element in the hydrological cycle and vital for the biosphere. However, when extreme precipitation events occur, the consequences could be devastating for humans (droughts or floods). An accurate prediction of precipitation helps decision-makers to develop adequate...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1828319 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849468128283590656 |
|---|---|
| author | Mario Peña Angel Vázquez-Patiño Darío Zhiña Martin Montenegro Alex Avilés |
| author_facet | Mario Peña Angel Vázquez-Patiño Darío Zhiña Martin Montenegro Alex Avilés |
| author_sort | Mario Peña |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precipitation is the most relevant element in the hydrological cycle and vital for the biosphere. However, when extreme precipitation events occur, the consequences could be devastating for humans (droughts or floods). An accurate prediction of precipitation helps decision-makers to develop adequate mitigation plans. In this study, linear and nonlinear models with lagged predictors and the implementation of a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous variables (NARX) network were used to predict monthly rainfall in Labrado and Chirimachay meteorological stations. To define a suitable model, ridge regression, lasso, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and NARX network were used. Although the results were “unsatisfactory” with the linear models, the specific direct influences of variables such as Niño 1 + 2, Sahel rainfall, hurricane activity, North Pacific Oscillation, and the same delayed rainfall signal were identified. RF and SVM also demonstrated poor performance. However, RF had a better fit than linear models, and SVM has a better fit than RF models. Instead, the NARX model was trained using several architectures to identify an optimal one for the best prediction twelve months ahead. As an overall evaluation, the NARX model showed “good” results for Labrado and “satisfactory” results for Chirimachay. The predictions yielded by NARX models, for the first six months ahead, were entirely accurate. This study highlighted the strengths of NARX networks in the prediction of chaotic and nonlinear signals such as rainfall in regions that obey complex processes. The results would serve to make short-term plans and give support to decision-makers in the management of water resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fb0be423dd0546dfb5a5ee74a970a2f9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-fb0be423dd0546dfb5a5ee74a970a2f92025-08-20T03:25:56ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172020-01-01202010.1155/2020/18283191828319Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain RegionMario Peña0Angel Vázquez-Patiño1Darío Zhiña2Martin Montenegro3Alex Avilés4Dirección de Investigación (DIUC), Universidad de Cuenca, Campus Central, Av. 12 de Abril s/n y Loja 010203, Cuenca, EcuadorFacultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril S/n y Loja 010203, Cuenca, EcuadorCarrera de Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Cuenca, Campus Central, Av. 12 de Abril S/n y Loja 010203, Cuenca, EcuadorCarrera de Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Cuenca, Campus Central, Av. 12 de Abril S/n y Loja 010203, Cuenca, EcuadorCarrera de Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Cuenca, Campus Central, Av. 12 de Abril S/n y Loja 010203, Cuenca, EcuadorPrecipitation is the most relevant element in the hydrological cycle and vital for the biosphere. However, when extreme precipitation events occur, the consequences could be devastating for humans (droughts or floods). An accurate prediction of precipitation helps decision-makers to develop adequate mitigation plans. In this study, linear and nonlinear models with lagged predictors and the implementation of a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous variables (NARX) network were used to predict monthly rainfall in Labrado and Chirimachay meteorological stations. To define a suitable model, ridge regression, lasso, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and NARX network were used. Although the results were “unsatisfactory” with the linear models, the specific direct influences of variables such as Niño 1 + 2, Sahel rainfall, hurricane activity, North Pacific Oscillation, and the same delayed rainfall signal were identified. RF and SVM also demonstrated poor performance. However, RF had a better fit than linear models, and SVM has a better fit than RF models. Instead, the NARX model was trained using several architectures to identify an optimal one for the best prediction twelve months ahead. As an overall evaluation, the NARX model showed “good” results for Labrado and “satisfactory” results for Chirimachay. The predictions yielded by NARX models, for the first six months ahead, were entirely accurate. This study highlighted the strengths of NARX networks in the prediction of chaotic and nonlinear signals such as rainfall in regions that obey complex processes. The results would serve to make short-term plans and give support to decision-makers in the management of water resources.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1828319 |
| spellingShingle | Mario Peña Angel Vázquez-Patiño Darío Zhiña Martin Montenegro Alex Avilés Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region |
| title_full | Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region |
| title_fullStr | Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region |
| title_short | Improved Rainfall Prediction through Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Variables: A Case Study in Andes High Mountain Region |
| title_sort | improved rainfall prediction through nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous variables a case study in andes high mountain region |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1828319 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariopena improvedrainfallpredictionthroughnonlinearautoregressivenetworkwithexogenousvariablesacasestudyinandeshighmountainregion AT angelvazquezpatino improvedrainfallpredictionthroughnonlinearautoregressivenetworkwithexogenousvariablesacasestudyinandeshighmountainregion AT dariozhina improvedrainfallpredictionthroughnonlinearautoregressivenetworkwithexogenousvariablesacasestudyinandeshighmountainregion AT martinmontenegro improvedrainfallpredictionthroughnonlinearautoregressivenetworkwithexogenousvariablesacasestudyinandeshighmountainregion AT alexaviles improvedrainfallpredictionthroughnonlinearautoregressivenetworkwithexogenousvariablesacasestudyinandeshighmountainregion |