Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation

Abstract Cold region pavements are subjected to climate impacts, as frost heave and thaw settlement can significantly deteriorate the pavement surface conditions and reduce its service life. Due to the freezing/thawing behaviors, the smoothness of the flexible pavement surface usually shows seasonal...

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Main Authors: Yusheng Jiang, Shafi Ullah, Claudia Zapata, Xiong Yu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2025-06-01
Series:Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-025-00126-2
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author Yusheng Jiang
Shafi Ullah
Claudia Zapata
Xiong Yu
author_facet Yusheng Jiang
Shafi Ullah
Claudia Zapata
Xiong Yu
author_sort Yusheng Jiang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Cold region pavements are subjected to climate impacts, as frost heave and thaw settlement can significantly deteriorate the pavement surface conditions and reduce its service life. Due to the freezing/thawing behaviors, the smoothness of the flexible pavement surface usually shows seasonal fluctuations, i.e., an increases or decreases of international roughness index (IRI) during freezing season or thawing season, respectively. However, few existing models capture such season-dependent mode of IRI variations. In this study, calibrated models for flexible pavement are proposed for evaluating the IRI on seasonal scales through both global and local calibrations. The globally calibrated model successfully links the freezing–thawing processes to flexible pavement performance. The performance of both the global and local calibrations are verified by field measurements at selected road sections and Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) model predictions. The proposed model connects climatic factors with pavement performance, and therefore offering a tool to assess the pavement IRI response to future climate changes. Based on the globally calibrated model, a series of analyses were conducted to forecast the impacts of climate change on IRI at sites located in different cold climate zones. The effects of climate change on pavement construction and operation are investigated. From this, the impacts of climate change on pavement design adaptation as well as the environmental footprint of vehicle operations are estimated.
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spelling doaj-art-fafdcf35ad8948aab8073e7ea92b27372025-08-20T02:39:43ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience2662-25212025-06-016111510.1186/s43065-025-00126-2Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operationYusheng Jiang0Shafi Ullah1Claudia Zapata2Xiong Yu3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Case Western Reserve UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Case Western Reserve UniversitySchool of Sustainable Engineering and Built Environment, Arizona State UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Case Western Reserve UniversityAbstract Cold region pavements are subjected to climate impacts, as frost heave and thaw settlement can significantly deteriorate the pavement surface conditions and reduce its service life. Due to the freezing/thawing behaviors, the smoothness of the flexible pavement surface usually shows seasonal fluctuations, i.e., an increases or decreases of international roughness index (IRI) during freezing season or thawing season, respectively. However, few existing models capture such season-dependent mode of IRI variations. In this study, calibrated models for flexible pavement are proposed for evaluating the IRI on seasonal scales through both global and local calibrations. The globally calibrated model successfully links the freezing–thawing processes to flexible pavement performance. The performance of both the global and local calibrations are verified by field measurements at selected road sections and Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) model predictions. The proposed model connects climatic factors with pavement performance, and therefore offering a tool to assess the pavement IRI response to future climate changes. Based on the globally calibrated model, a series of analyses were conducted to forecast the impacts of climate change on IRI at sites located in different cold climate zones. The effects of climate change on pavement construction and operation are investigated. From this, the impacts of climate change on pavement design adaptation as well as the environmental footprint of vehicle operations are estimated.https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-025-00126-2cold region pavementfrost heaveclimate changepavement IRIadaptive design
spellingShingle Yusheng Jiang
Shafi Ullah
Claudia Zapata
Xiong Yu
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience
cold region pavement
frost heave
climate change
pavement IRI
adaptive design
title Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
title_full Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
title_fullStr Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
title_short Assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
title_sort assessment of the impacts of climate change on cold region pavement design and operation
topic cold region pavement
frost heave
climate change
pavement IRI
adaptive design
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-025-00126-2
work_keys_str_mv AT yushengjiang assessmentoftheimpactsofclimatechangeoncoldregionpavementdesignandoperation
AT shafiullah assessmentoftheimpactsofclimatechangeoncoldregionpavementdesignandoperation
AT claudiazapata assessmentoftheimpactsofclimatechangeoncoldregionpavementdesignandoperation
AT xiongyu assessmentoftheimpactsofclimatechangeoncoldregionpavementdesignandoperation