Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties

The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust mult...

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Main Authors: Zehao Shi, Jiajia Chen, Yanxin Wang, Yanlei Zhao, Bingyin Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: China electric power research institute 2025-01-01
Series:CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
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Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/
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author Zehao Shi
Jiajia Chen
Yanxin Wang
Yanlei Zhao
Bingyin Xu
author_facet Zehao Shi
Jiajia Chen
Yanxin Wang
Yanlei Zhao
Bingyin Xu
author_sort Zehao Shi
collection DOAJ
description The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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issn 2096-0042
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher China electric power research institute
record_format Article
series CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
spelling doaj-art-fab404e1f1084f74aabbb8ebd2f78a2b2025-08-20T02:08:49ZengChina electric power research instituteCSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems2096-00422025-01-0111398799810.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.0912011006442Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous UncertaintiesZehao Shi0Jiajia Chen1Yanxin Wang2Yanlei Zhao3Bingyin Xu4School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/Copula couplingcredibility theoryindustrial parkmultistage planninguncertainties
spellingShingle Zehao Shi
Jiajia Chen
Yanxin Wang
Yanlei Zhao
Bingyin Xu
Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
Copula coupling
credibility theory
industrial park
multistage planning
uncertainties
title Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
title_full Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
title_fullStr Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
title_short Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
title_sort credibility copula based robust multistage plan for industrial parks under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties
topic Copula coupling
credibility theory
industrial park
multistage planning
uncertainties
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/
work_keys_str_mv AT zehaoshi credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties
AT jiajiachen credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties
AT yanxinwang credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties
AT yanleizhao credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties
AT bingyinxu credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties