Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties
The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust mult...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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China electric power research institute
2025-01-01
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| Series: | CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/ |
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| author | Zehao Shi Jiajia Chen Yanxin Wang Yanlei Zhao Bingyin Xu |
| author_facet | Zehao Shi Jiajia Chen Yanxin Wang Yanlei Zhao Bingyin Xu |
| author_sort | Zehao Shi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fab404e1f1084f74aabbb8ebd2f78a2b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2096-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | China electric power research institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-fab404e1f1084f74aabbb8ebd2f78a2b2025-08-20T02:08:49ZengChina electric power research instituteCSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems2096-00422025-01-0111398799810.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.0912011006442Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous UncertaintiesZehao Shi0Jiajia Chen1Yanxin Wang2Yanlei Zhao3Bingyin Xu4School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,China,255000The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/Copula couplingcredibility theoryindustrial parkmultistage planninguncertainties |
| spellingShingle | Zehao Shi Jiajia Chen Yanxin Wang Yanlei Zhao Bingyin Xu Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems Copula coupling credibility theory industrial park multistage planning uncertainties |
| title | Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties |
| title_full | Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties |
| title_fullStr | Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties |
| title_full_unstemmed | Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties |
| title_short | Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties |
| title_sort | credibility copula based robust multistage plan for industrial parks under exogenous and endogenous uncertainties |
| topic | Copula coupling credibility theory industrial park multistage planning uncertainties |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11006442/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zehaoshi credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties AT jiajiachen credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties AT yanxinwang credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties AT yanleizhao credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties AT bingyinxu credibilitycopulabasedrobustmultistageplanforindustrialparksunderexogenousandendogenousuncertainties |