Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions

The automobile sector faces major challenges in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the shift to electric mobility raising concerns about resource sustainability. Although circular economy (CE) strategies are suggested as complementary solutions, their long-term effectiveness is questioned...

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Main Authors: Ziyan He, Xin Sun, Kenichi Nakajima, Shinsuke Murakami, Yasuaki Hijioka, Minoru Fujii, Lu Sun
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/adaf52
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author Ziyan He
Xin Sun
Kenichi Nakajima
Shinsuke Murakami
Yasuaki Hijioka
Minoru Fujii
Lu Sun
author_facet Ziyan He
Xin Sun
Kenichi Nakajima
Shinsuke Murakami
Yasuaki Hijioka
Minoru Fujii
Lu Sun
author_sort Ziyan He
collection DOAJ
description The automobile sector faces major challenges in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the shift to electric mobility raising concerns about resource sustainability. Although circular economy (CE) strategies are suggested as complementary solutions, their long-term effectiveness is questioned due to rapid vehicle electrification. This study examines whether evolving energy scenarios affect the effectiveness and priority of CE strategies in Japan’s and China’s automobile sectors. Under moderate vehicle electrification scenario, CE strategies could reduce cumulative resource extraction by 2.4 Gt in Japan and 49 Gt in China, with GHG reductions of 0.28 Gt and 6.1 Gt, respectively, by 2050. Under more aggressive electric vehicle scenarios, resource savings rise to 3.1 Gt (Japan) and 52 Gt (China), although GHG reductions decrease to 0.21–0.25 Gt in Japan and 5.2–5.6 Gt in China, depending on the energy mix. Over 50% of remaining GHG emissions in Japan and China will be tied to vehicle manufacturing, especially lithium-ion battery (LIB) production. Reducing vehicle ownership remains the most impactful strategy, with vehicle downsizing and enhanced material recycling offering notable benefits, especially in China. Policy measures such as shared mobility services, subsidies for durable and fuel-efficient vehicles, and advanced LIB recycling systems are critical to addressing resource demands and environmental impacts. While the GHG mitigation potential of CE strategies may decrease as grids decarbonize, their role in conserving critical resources remains indispensable. These findings highlight the need for holistic, life-cycle approaches that integrate CE strategies with decarbonization policies to achieve net-zero goals. Lessons from Japan’s and China’s experiences provide actionable insights for other regions, emphasizing the enduring relevance of CE strategies in reducing resource consumption and mitigating environmental impacts in a rapidly electrifying automobile industry.
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spelling doaj-art-fa91f51cd5da493ab400335a96ef5a3f2025-08-20T03:00:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability2634-45052025-01-015101501010.1088/2634-4505/adaf52Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitionsZiyan He0https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3441-0051Xin Sun1Kenichi Nakajima2Shinsuke Murakami3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0022-4333Yasuaki Hijioka4Minoru Fujii5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6930-5115Lu Sun6Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo , 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; Material Cycles Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan; Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanChina Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd , Tianjin 300300, People’s Republic of ChinaGraduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo , 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; Material Cycles Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanGraduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo , Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, JapanGraduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo , 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanGraduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo , 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8563, Japan; Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanSchool of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University , Xi’an 710049, People’s Republic of ChinaThe automobile sector faces major challenges in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the shift to electric mobility raising concerns about resource sustainability. Although circular economy (CE) strategies are suggested as complementary solutions, their long-term effectiveness is questioned due to rapid vehicle electrification. This study examines whether evolving energy scenarios affect the effectiveness and priority of CE strategies in Japan’s and China’s automobile sectors. Under moderate vehicle electrification scenario, CE strategies could reduce cumulative resource extraction by 2.4 Gt in Japan and 49 Gt in China, with GHG reductions of 0.28 Gt and 6.1 Gt, respectively, by 2050. Under more aggressive electric vehicle scenarios, resource savings rise to 3.1 Gt (Japan) and 52 Gt (China), although GHG reductions decrease to 0.21–0.25 Gt in Japan and 5.2–5.6 Gt in China, depending on the energy mix. Over 50% of remaining GHG emissions in Japan and China will be tied to vehicle manufacturing, especially lithium-ion battery (LIB) production. Reducing vehicle ownership remains the most impactful strategy, with vehicle downsizing and enhanced material recycling offering notable benefits, especially in China. Policy measures such as shared mobility services, subsidies for durable and fuel-efficient vehicles, and advanced LIB recycling systems are critical to addressing resource demands and environmental impacts. While the GHG mitigation potential of CE strategies may decrease as grids decarbonize, their role in conserving critical resources remains indispensable. These findings highlight the need for holistic, life-cycle approaches that integrate CE strategies with decarbonization policies to achieve net-zero goals. Lessons from Japan’s and China’s experiences provide actionable insights for other regions, emphasizing the enduring relevance of CE strategies in reducing resource consumption and mitigating environmental impacts in a rapidly electrifying automobile industry.https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/adaf52circular economypassenger vehiclesgreenhouse gas reductionenergy mixvehicle electrification
spellingShingle Ziyan He
Xin Sun
Kenichi Nakajima
Shinsuke Murakami
Yasuaki Hijioka
Minoru Fujii
Lu Sun
Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
circular economy
passenger vehicles
greenhouse gas reduction
energy mix
vehicle electrification
title Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
title_full Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
title_fullStr Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
title_full_unstemmed Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
title_short Rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
title_sort rapid vehicle electrification reduces carbon benefits but increases resource savings in circular automobile transitions
topic circular economy
passenger vehicles
greenhouse gas reduction
energy mix
vehicle electrification
url https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/adaf52
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AT xinsun rapidvehicleelectrificationreducescarbonbenefitsbutincreasesresourcesavingsincircularautomobiletransitions
AT kenichinakajima rapidvehicleelectrificationreducescarbonbenefitsbutincreasesresourcesavingsincircularautomobiletransitions
AT shinsukemurakami rapidvehicleelectrificationreducescarbonbenefitsbutincreasesresourcesavingsincircularautomobiletransitions
AT yasuakihijioka rapidvehicleelectrificationreducescarbonbenefitsbutincreasesresourcesavingsincircularautomobiletransitions
AT minorufujii rapidvehicleelectrificationreducescarbonbenefitsbutincreasesresourcesavingsincircularautomobiletransitions
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